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Flevy Management Insights Case Study
Strategic Diversification for Agriculture Firm


There are countless scenarios that require McKinsey 3 Horizons Model. Fortune 500 companies typically bring on global consulting firms, like McKinsey, BCG, Bain, Deloitte, and Accenture, or boutique consulting firms specializing in McKinsey 3 Horizons Model to thoroughly analyze their unique business challenges and competitive situations. These firms provide strategic recommendations based on consulting frameworks, subject matter expertise, benchmark data, best practices, and other tools developed from past client work. Let us analyze the following scenario.

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Consider this scenario: The organization is a mid-sized agricultural company facing stagnation in its core markets and recognizing the need to innovate for long-term sustainability.

With a solid foundation in its current operations (Horizon 1), the organization is struggling to identify and nurture emerging opportunities (Horizon 2) while simultaneously exploring radical innovations for future growth (Horizon 3). The organization seeks to balance its portfolio across the McKinsey 3 Horizons Model to ensure continuous growth while maintaining current profitability.



The organization's situation suggests that the primary challenges may lie in insufficient strategic foresight and an imbalanced innovation portfolio. One hypothesis is that the organization's current success has bred complacency, leading to underinvestment in Horizon 2 and Horizon 3 initiatives. A second hypothesis could be that the organization's internal processes and culture are not conducive to nurturing the innovations necessary for future growth. A final hypothesis might consider whether the organization lacks a systematic approach to evaluating and prioritizing potential growth opportunities.

Methodology

The methodology to address these challenges involves a structured, multi-phase approach that leverages the McKinsey 3 Horizons Model as a framework for balanced growth. This approach ensures that efforts and resources are appropriately allocated across all three horizons, thus securing the organization's current success while laying the groundwork for future growth.

  1. Current Portfolio Assessment: Analyze the organization's existing operations to understand the current distribution of resources and initiatives across the 3 Horizons . This phase includes financial performance analysis, capability assessment, and portfolio gap analysis.
  2. Opportunity Identification & Prioritization: Conduct market research and trend analysis to identify emerging opportunities. Develop criteria for prioritizing these opportunities based on strategic fit, potential value, and capability requirements.
  3. Innovation Pipeline Development: Establish processes for continuous innovation ideation, screening, and development. This phase focuses on creating a structured pipeline for Horizon 2 and Horizon 3 initiatives.
  4. Strategic Roadmapping: Develop a clear strategic roadmap that outlines key initiatives, timelines, and investment requirements across the 3 Horizons . Ensure alignment with overall business strategy and resource availability.
  5. Execution Planning & Change Management: Plan for the implementation of the strategic roadmap, including resource allocation, change management strategies, and risk management.

The CEO will naturally question how this methodology will integrate with the organization's existing operations without causing disruption. To address this, a phased integration plan will be devised, allowing for gradual adoption of the new strategic direction. The CEO may also be concerned about the organization's ability to sustain investment in long-term initiatives that may not yield immediate returns. This will be mitigated by establishing clear metrics and milestones for Horizon 2 and Horizon 3 projects, ensuring that they contribute to the organization's long-term value creation. Lastly, the CEO will be interested in how the organization can foster a culture that supports innovation. This will involve leadership development, communication strategies, and incentive structures to promote and reward innovative thinking and risk-taking.

Upon full implementation, the organization can expect to see a balanced portfolio of initiatives that secures current operations while driving future growth. This includes an increase in the pipeline of Horizon 2 and Horizon 3 projects, improved strategic agility, and enhanced capability to capitalize on emerging market opportunities. Revenue diversification and a higher potential for disruptive innovation in the industry are other anticipated outcomes.

Potential implementation challenges include resistance to change, especially in transitioning resources to longer-term initiatives. There is also the risk of overextending the organization by pursuing too many opportunities simultaneously, which can dilute focus and impact. Lastly, aligning the entire organization with the new strategic direction may pose difficulties, particularly in ensuring cross-departmental collaboration and overcoming siloed thinking.

Learn more about Change Management Risk Management Market Research

For effective implementation, take a look at these McKinsey 3 Horizons Model best practices:

McKinsey 3 Horizons of Growth (31-slide PowerPoint deck)
McKinsey‘s Three Horizons of Growth (144-slide PowerPoint deck)
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Implementation KPIs

KPIS are crucial throughout the implementation process. They provide quantifiable checkpoints to validate the alignment of operational activities with our strategic goals, ensuring that execution is not just activity-driven, but results-oriented. Further, these KPIs act as early indicators of progress or deviation, enabling agile decision-making and course correction if needed.


Tell me how you measure me, and I will tell you how I will behave.
     – Eliyahu M. Goldratt

  • Horizon 1 Revenue Stability: To ensure the organization's core business remains robust.
  • Horizon 2 and 3 Initiative Pipeline Size: To track the growth and health of future opportunities.
  • Innovation Success Rate: To measure the effectiveness of the innovation process.
  • Strategic Initiative ROI: To evaluate the financial impact of new growth initiatives.
  • Employee Engagement in Innovation: To assess the cultural adoption of innovation practices.

For more KPIs, take a look at the Flevy KPI Library, one of the most comprehensive databases of KPIs available. Having a centralized library of KPIs saves you significant time and effort in researching and developing metrics, allowing you to focus more on analysis, implementation of strategies, and other more value-added activities.

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Deliverables

  • Strategic Assessment Report (PowerPoint)
  • Innovation Portfolio Analysis (Excel)
  • Strategic Roadmap (PowerPoint)
  • Change Management Plan (MS Word)
  • Risk Assessment Framework (Excel)

Explore more McKinsey 3 Horizons Model deliverables

Case Studies

  • A leading consumer goods company successfully applied the 3 Horizons Model to enter the health and wellness space, resulting in a 20% increase in new market revenues within two years.
  • An international technology firm leveraged the model to pivot from hardware to software services, now accounting for over 35% of its total revenue.

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Additional Executive Insights

  • An integral part of the methodology is ensuring that the organization's leadership is aligned with the strategic vision. This includes developing a leadership framework that emphasizes Strategic Planning, Innovation, and Change Management.
  • For Horizon 2 and Horizon 3 initiatives, it's critical to establish a set of leading practice frameworks that guide the development and management of these projects. This includes best practices for ideation, prototyping, and scaling.
  • According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, companies that systematically manage a portfolio of innovation projects see a 70% higher contribution from new products to overall revenues, compared to those that do not.

Learn more about Strategic Planning Best Practices

Resource Allocation Between Horizons

One key concern for executives is how to effectively allocate resources between the three horizons without jeopardizing current operations. According to McKinsey, the optimal distribution is often skewed towards Horizon 1, with approximately 70% of resources dedicated to core business, 20% to emerging opportunities, and 10% to future-oriented innovation. However, this distribution can vary based on the industry's pace of change and the company's strategic objectives. The organization must conduct a dynamic resource allocation exercise, regularly reviewing and adjusting investments in each horizon to reflect shifts in the market and internal capabilities.

Furthermore, executives should consider establishing a dedicated innovation fund to finance Horizon 2 and 3 initiatives. This creates a protected budget that is not at the mercy of short-term financial pressures and ensures that long-term projects have the necessary resources to reach fruition.

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Aligning Innovation with Core Business

Another pertinent question is how the organization can align Horizon 2 and 3 innovations with its core business to create synergies and avoid strategic misalignment. It is essential to establish a clear innovation thesis that defines the strategic boundaries and criteria for evaluating opportunities. This thesis should be rooted in the company’s core competencies and market position, ensuring that new ventures are not only financially viable but also reinforce the company's brand and competitive advantage.

For example, a global survey by PwC found that 54% of companies struggle to align innovation with business strategy, which underscores the importance of this alignment. By leveraging their deep industry knowledge and customer relationships, organizations can identify adjacencies and convergence opportunities that allow for a more natural expansion from the core business into new markets and technologies.

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Measuring the Success of Horizon 2 and 3 Initiatives

Measuring the success of longer-term initiatives is often challenging, given the inherent uncertainty and longer time horizons. Executives should focus on a balanced scorecard approach that includes both leading and lagging indicators. Leading indicators might include the number of ideas generated, the percentage of projects advancing through the innovation pipeline, and employee participation in innovation activities. Lagging indicators, on the other hand, could encompass market share growth, revenue from new products, and customer acquisition metrics.

Accenture research suggests that companies with high-growth strategies are twice as likely to use innovation metrics effectively. It is therefore crucial to establish a robust set of KPIs that are tailored to the nature of Horizon 2 and 3 projects, with a focus on learning and iteration over immediate financial returns.

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Managing the Cultural Shift Towards Innovation

The cultural shift required to embrace innovation across all horizons is often a significant hurdle for organizations. Leadership must actively work to create an environment that encourages experimentation and tolerates failure. This can be achieved by recognizing and rewarding innovative behavior, providing opportunities for cross-functional collaboration, and offering training and development programs that emphasize creative thinking and agile methodologies.

According to a Bain & Company report, companies that have a strong culture of innovation generate a higher share of revenue from new products and services. Thus, embedding innovation into the organizational culture is not just a nice-to-have but a business imperative for sustainable growth.

Learn more about Agile Organizational Culture Creative Thinking

Overcoming Resistance to Change

Resistance to change is a natural reaction, particularly in organizations with established ways of working. To combat this, change management practices must be woven into the fabric of the innovation process. This involves clear communication about the strategic rationale for innovation, the creation of change agent networks, and the development of an inclusive approach that allows employees to contribute to and have a stake in the change process.

Furthermore, Deloitte insights reveal that companies with effective change management are 3.5 times more likely to outperform their peers. Executives must therefore prioritize change management as a critical component of their innovation strategy.

Addressing the Risk of Spreading Too Thin

Another concern is the risk of spreading the organization too thin by pursuing too many opportunities simultaneously. To mitigate this, executives should employ a rigorous prioritization framework that assesses the strategic fit, market potential, and capability alignment of each opportunity. This will enable the organization to focus on the most promising initiatives and avoid diluting resources.

According to KPMG, only 22% of organizations say they are very effective at prioritizing innovation investment. By enhancing prioritization mechanisms, the organization can ensure that it is investing in the right projects that offer the best chance for growth and competitive differentiation.

Ensuring Cross-Departmental Collaboration

Finally, executives are often concerned about ensuring cross-departmental collaboration in pursuit of innovation. Siloed departments can hinder information flow and reduce the effectiveness of innovation initiatives. To address this, the organization should consider creating cross-functional teams that bring together diverse perspectives and expertise. These teams can work on specific innovation projects, breaking down barriers and fostering a more collaborative culture.

EY research indicates that companies with collaborative cultures are 1.5 times more likely to report annual revenue growth of more than 10%. By promoting cross-departmental collaboration, the organization not only enhances its innovation capacity but also drives better business performance.

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Key Findings and Results

Here is a summary of the key results of this case study:

  • Stabilized Horizon 1 revenue, maintaining core business robustness without significant fluctuations.
  • Increased the Horizon 2 and 3 initiative pipeline by 40%, demonstrating a substantial boost in future opportunity development.
  • Achieved a 15% innovation success rate, indicating effective ideation and execution processes for new initiatives.
  • Realized a strategic initiative ROI of 20%, reflecting positive financial impacts from new growth initiatives.
  • Improved employee engagement in innovation activities by 25%, fostering a stronger culture of innovation.

The initiative has been largely successful, as evidenced by the key results. The stabilization of Horizon 1 revenue ensures that the core business remains unaffected by the strategic shift towards innovation. The significant increase in the Horizon 2 and 3 initiative pipeline is particularly noteworthy, as it lays the groundwork for future growth and diversification. The innovation success rate and strategic initiative ROI are indicative of effective execution and financial prudence. Additionally, the improvement in employee engagement in innovation activities suggests a positive cultural shift within the organization. However, the success could have been further enhanced by addressing potential resistance to change more proactively and by refining the prioritization framework to focus even more narrowly on high-impact opportunities. Alternative strategies might have included more aggressive investment in Horizon 3 initiatives to capture disruptive opportunities and a stronger emphasis on external partnerships to accelerate innovation.

Based on the analysis, the recommended next steps include a deeper focus on Horizon 3 initiatives to explore radical innovations and disrupt the industry further. The organization should also consider establishing more strategic partnerships with startups and academic institutions to enhance its innovation ecosystem. Additionally, refining the resource allocation process to dynamically adjust investments based on market changes and internal performance metrics will be crucial. Finally, continuing to build the innovation culture through targeted training, recognition programs, and opportunities for cross-functional collaboration will ensure sustained engagement and success in innovation efforts.

Source: Strategic Diversification for Agriculture Firm, Flevy Management Insights, 2024

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