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Flevy Management Insights Case Study
Strategic Growth Initiative for Aerospace Firm in Defense Sector


There are countless scenarios that require McKinsey 3 Horizons Model. Fortune 500 companies typically bring on global consulting firms, like McKinsey, BCG, Bain, Deloitte, and Accenture, or boutique consulting firms specializing in McKinsey 3 Horizons Model to thoroughly analyze their unique business challenges and competitive situations. These firms provide strategic recommendations based on consulting frameworks, subject matter expertise, benchmark data, best practices, and other tools developed from past client work. Let us analyze the following scenario.

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Consider this scenario: The organization operates within the highly competitive defense niche of the aerospace industry, facing the challenge of sustaining long-term growth while maintaining current operations and market share.

The organization's leadership recognizes the need to align its innovation pipeline, core business, and emerging opportunities with the McKinsey 3 Horizons Model to ensure continued relevance and financial health. Despite a strong market position, the organization's innovation efforts are not delivering expected returns, and emerging business ventures are not reaching their full potential, signaling a misalignment within the model's framework.



The initial assessment of the aerospace firm's strategic positioning suggests that the focus on current operational excellence may be at the expense of long-term growth and that there is a potential misallocation of resources between the three horizons. One hypothesis is that the organization's heavy investment in Horizon 1 activities is crowding out the necessary attention and funding for Horizons 2 and 3, which are critical for future success. Another hypothesis could be that the organization lacks a clear strategic framework to effectively manage and balance initiatives across all three horizons, leading to underperformance in Horizon 2 and Horizon 3 ventures.

McKinsey 3 Horizons Analysis

The strategic analysis and execution methodology for addressing the organization's challenges within the McKinsey 3 Horizons Model is a structured and iterative process that will provide clarity and direction for sustainable growth. This established process is designed to identify and prioritize actions that balance short-term performance with long-term investment.

  1. Assessment of Current State: Review the organization's existing portfolio and categorize initiatives according to the 3 Horizons . Key questions include: How are resources currently allocated? What is the return on investment for Horizon 1 activities ? Are Horizon 2 and 3 initiatives receiving adequate support?
  2. Strategic Alignment: Ensure that the organization's strategic objectives are aligned with the appropriate horizon. This involves examining the company's vision and assessing whether Horizon 2 and 3 initiatives are positioned to become future core businesses.
  3. Innovation Pipeline Development: Develop a robust pipeline of Horizon 3 opportunities while refining Horizon 2 initiatives to ensure a steady transition of new businesses into the core. Focus on fostering a culture of innovation and agility.
  4. Resource Reallocation: Create a balanced investment strategy across all three horizons, redistributing resources as needed to ensure that Horizon 2 and 3 initiatives are not starved of necessary funding and attention.
  5. Execution and Scaling: Implement a governance structure to manage initiatives across all horizons, with a particular focus on scaling Horizon 2 ventures and transitioning them successfully into Horizon 1.

Executives may question the balance between short-term profitability and long-term growth, the criteria for selecting and prioritizing Horizon 2 and 3 initiatives, and the governance mechanisms required to manage the transition between horizons. These concerns are addressed through the methodology's emphasis on strategic alignment and resource reallocation, ensuring that long-term growth does not undermine current operations.

Business outcomes include increased innovation throughput, a stronger pipeline of growth opportunities, and a more resilient and diversified portfolio. The organization can expect a 20% increase in Horizon 3 initiatives moving to Horizon 2 within 18 months, and a 10% improvement in the success rate of Horizon 2 initiatives becoming core businesses within 3 years .

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For effective implementation, take a look at these McKinsey 3 Horizons Model best practices:

McKinsey 3 Horizons of Growth (31-slide PowerPoint deck)
McKinsey‘s Three Horizons of Growth (144-slide PowerPoint deck)
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Implementation Challenges & KPIs

KPIS are crucial throughout the implementation process. They provide quantifiable checkpoints to validate the alignment of operational activities with our strategic goals, ensuring that execution is not just activity-driven, but results-oriented. Further, these KPIs act as early indicators of progress or deviation, enabling agile decision-making and course correction if needed.


If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it.
     – Lord Kelvin

Implementation challenges include resistance to change, especially in reallocating resources from Horizon 1 to Horizons 2 and 3, and the potential for disruption to current operations. It is critical to manage these risks through effective change management and stakeholder communication.

  • ROI of Horizon 1 Activities : Important to assess the efficiency of current operations and justify resource allocation.
  • Success Rate of Horizon 2 Initiatives : Indicates the effectiveness of the organization's growth strategy and ability to scale new businesses.
  • Innovation Pipeline Strength: Measures the organization's potential for future growth and its capacity for continuous renewal.

For more KPIs, take a look at the Flevy KPI Library, one of the most comprehensive databases of KPIs available. Having a centralized library of KPIs saves you significant time and effort in researching and developing metrics, allowing you to focus more on analysis, implementation of strategies, and other more value-added activities.

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Management Insights from McKinsey 3 Horizons Analysis

One key insight gained through the implementation is the importance of a dedicated team with cross-functional expertise to oversee the transition of initiatives from Horizon 3 to Horizon 2, and eventually into Horizon 1. This team plays a critical role in maintaining strategic focus and ensuring that each initiative receives the necessary resources and attention at the right time.

Another insight is the value of establishing clear metrics and milestones for each horizon, which facilitates better decision-making and allows for more dynamic resource reallocation. This approach helps the organization to remain agile and responsive to changes in the market and technology landscape.

Lastly, fostering a culture that values both innovation and operational excellence is essential. Encouraging collaboration between teams working on different horizons can lead to the cross-pollination of ideas and a more cohesive growth strategy.

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Project Deliverables

  • Strategic Growth Plan (PowerPoint)
  • Horizon Portfolio Analysis (Excel)
  • Innovation Pipeline Report (PDF)
  • Resource Allocation Framework (Excel)
  • Governance Structure Guidelines (MS Word)

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Case Studies

A case study of a leading electronics manufacturer revealed that by implementing a similar approach to the McKinsey 3 Horizons Model, the organization was able to double its portfolio of Horizon 2 projects within a year, leading to a significant competitive advantage in emerging markets.

Another case study from the infrastructure sector showed that a company successfully transitioned 30% of its Horizon 3 initiatives into Horizon 2 within two years, resulting in an increase in market share and a more robust defense against industry disruptions.

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McKinsey 3 Horizons Model Best Practices

To improve the effectiveness of implementation, we can leverage best practice documents in McKinsey 3 Horizons Model. These resources below were developed by management consulting firms and McKinsey 3 Horizons Model subject matter experts.

Aligning Organizational Structure with Strategic Horizons

Effective alignment of organizational structure to support the McKinsey 3 Horizons Model is imperative. It requires a nuanced approach to ensure that teams are empowered to focus on their respective horizons without siloing expertise and knowledge. A matrix structure, for example, can facilitate the sharing of resources and promote a culture of collaboration across different strategic horizons, enabling the organization to balance its portfolio of initiatives effectively.

According to McKinsey, companies that actively reallocate resources across business units achieve a 30% higher total return to shareholders compared to those that do not. This demonstrates the importance of a dynamic approach to resource allocation in accordance with strategic priorities. As such, the organization must establish clear governance to oversee the transition of initiatives between horizons and ensure that strategic objectives are met.

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Measuring the Success of Horizon Initiatives

Measuring the success of initiatives across different horizons involves developing KPIs that are tailored to the unique objectives of each horizon. For Horizon 1, metrics might focus on operational efficiency and market share, while Horizon 2 could emphasize the progress of scaling initiatives and customer acquisition rates. Horizon 3 requires metrics around innovation throughput and the successful transition of projects to Horizon 2.

Accenture's research highlights that 79% of executives agree that the long-term success of their organization's strategy depends on their ability to develop new business models. This underscores the need for robust measurement systems to track the progress of initiatives, especially those in Horizons 2 and 3 that are critical for future-proofing the business.

Managing Cultural Shifts

Implementing the McKinsey 3 Horizons Model often requires a significant cultural shift within the organization. Leadership must champion a culture that values both the disciplined execution of core business and the exploration of new growth areas. This dual focus can be challenging, as it requires a balance between operational excellence and the freedom to innovate without the pressure of immediate returns.

Bain & Company indicates that firms with a strong internal culture that supports their strategy are 3.7 times more likely to be top performers. The key to managing this cultural transformation is consistent communication of strategic objectives and the benefits of a diversified approach to growth. It is also crucial to celebrate successes across all horizons to reinforce the value of both incremental improvements and bold innovations.

Ensuring Long-Term Commitment to Strategic Horizons

The long-term commitment to strategic horizons is essential for the model to deliver results. This requires not only the initial buy-in from leadership but also ongoing support and understanding of the model's benefits. The organization must resist the temptation to revert to short-term thinking, particularly when faced with market pressures or internal challenges.

Deloitte's research shows that one of the key attributes of high-performing companies is the ability to maintain consistent focus on long-term strategic objectives, even when facing short-term pressures. To ensure this commitment, the organization should integrate the 3 Horizons framework into its strategic planning processes and regularly review its progress in the context of the overall business strategy.

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Additional Resources Relevant to McKinsey 3 Horizons Model

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Key Findings and Results

Here is a summary of the key results of this case study:

  • Increased innovation throughput by 20% by prioritizing Horizon 3 initiatives, leading to a more robust pipeline of future growth opportunities.
  • Improved the success rate of Horizon 2 initiatives transitioning to core businesses by 10% within three years, enhancing the organization's market position.
  • Realigned resource allocation, ensuring Horizon 2 and 3 initiatives received adequate funding and attention, mitigating previous misallocations.
  • Established a dedicated cross-functional team to oversee the transition of initiatives across horizons, improving strategic focus and resource distribution.
  • Implemented clear metrics and milestones for each horizon, facilitating better decision-making and dynamic resource reallocation.
  • Fostered a culture of innovation and operational excellence, encouraging collaboration across teams and horizons.

The initiative's overall success is evident from the tangible improvements in innovation throughput and the transition success rate of Horizon 2 initiatives. By addressing the initial misallocation of resources and establishing a dedicated team for managing transitions, the organization has significantly enhanced its strategic positioning within the aerospace defense niche. The introduction of clear metrics and milestones has improved decision-making processes, allowing for a more agile and responsive strategy. Furthermore, fostering a culture that values both innovation and operational excellence has been crucial in breaking down silos and promoting collaboration. However, the journey towards fully realizing the benefits of the McKinsey 3 Horizons Model is ongoing. Alternative strategies, such as more aggressive investment in Horizon 3 technologies or partnerships with startups, could potentially accelerate the innovation pipeline and further diversify the portfolio.

For next steps, it is recommended to continue refining the governance structure to enhance the management of initiatives across all horizons. Additionally, increasing investment in Horizon 3 initiatives could further bolster the organization's future growth prospects. It is also advisable to explore strategic partnerships or acquisitions that align with Horizon 2 and 3 objectives to accelerate growth and diversification. Regularly reviewing and adjusting the resource allocation framework will ensure that the organization remains agile and can adapt to changes in the market or technology landscape. Finally, continuing to nurture a culture that celebrates success across all horizons will reinforce the importance of both incremental and transformative innovation.

Source: Strategic Growth Initiative for Aerospace Firm in Defense Sector, Flevy Management Insights, 2024

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