Even before COVID-19, the world has been witnessing accelerating change and increasing complexity, partly due to the speed of technological development and adoption.
Strategic foresight includes a collection of method to help consider and anticipate an array of possible futures that could impact an organization, making it more adapt at facing "VUCA" – volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.
While a strategic foresight exercise traditionally focused on a 10- to 20-year time horizon, the high levels of uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic requires looking at significantly shorter time horizons.
With the traditional strategic planning assuming a reasonably stable environment, the strategic planning process can be enhanced by embedding foresight methods and tools.
Contents
1. Strategic Foresight Overview
• Context
• Key definitions
• Why use strategic foresight
• What strategic foresight is not
• Traditional strategic planning versus strategic foresight
• Barriers to strategic foresight and potential counteractions
• Benefits of strategic foresight
• Critical considerations for strategic foresight during a crisis
• A futurist approach to strategic planning for a given uncertainty
2. Strategic Foresight Methods
• The Foresight Diamond
• Examples of foresight methods
• Two directional orientations of foresight methods
• Common tools for corporate foresight practices
3. Strategic Foresight Frameworks
3A. Generic Foresight Process Framework
• Key activities and associated questions
• Key elements and their impact on the process
• Key activities and associated tools
3B. Integrated Foresight Framework
• Key activities and associated tools
• Integrated foresight process
3C. Corporate Foresight Framework
• High-level process based on MNC practices
• Foresight integrated long-term planning
3D. Framework Foresight
• Process with the description of each phase
• Process with the outcome of each phase
4. Undertaking a Strategic Foresight Project
• Phase 1: Frame
• Phase 2: Scan
• PESTEL analysis sample factors
• PESTEL analysis factors – summary slide
• Impact/uncertainty matrix – based on input from PEST or PESTEL analysis
• Impact/uncertainty matrix – summary slide
• Phase 3: Futurize
• The futures cone with alternative futures
• 2 x 2 scenario matrix – summary slide
• Identified key scenarios descriptions – summary slide
• Three horizon approach with scenarios embedded
• Phase 4: Envision
• Phase 5: Design
• Backcasting milestones
• Phase 6: Adapt
This PPT provides a comprehensive overview of the benefits of strategic foresight, including the ability to clarify key uncertainties and develop an alert system to monitor critical change drivers. It also delves into various foresight methods and frameworks, offering practical tools for corporate foresight practices.
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Source: Best Practices in COVID-19, Strategic Planning, Strategic Thinking, STEEPLE PowerPoint Slides: Strategic Foresight and Uncertainty PowerPoint (PPTX) Presentation Slide Deck, ILMAM - Strategy & Management Consulting
This PPT slide presents a framework for understanding the generic foresight process, highlighting key elements and their influence on strategic outcomes. It categorizes approaches into 4 distinct types: Reactive Strategy Approach, Shallow Foresight Process, Shallow/Narrow Foresight Process, and Robust Foresight Process.
Each approach has a structured flow of inputs, foresight analysis, and outputs that lead to strategic decisions. The Reactive Strategy Approach is positioned as the most basic, relying solely on inputs and analysis to inform strategy. This method lacks depth and may result in missed opportunities for proactive planning.
The Shallow Foresight Process introduces a prospecting element, suggesting a slight enhancement over the reactive approach. However, it still falls short of comprehensive analysis, which limits its effectiveness. The Shallow/Narrow Foresight Process builds on this by incorporating both prospecting and analysis, yet it still doesn't fully leverage the potential of foresight methodologies.
The Robust Foresight Process stands out as the most sophisticated approach. It integrates interpretation alongside analysis and prospecting, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of future possibilities. This comprehensive framework enables organizations to better anticipate changes and adapt strategies accordingly.
The slide emphasizes the importance of undertaking prospecting—essentially asking “What might happen”—while cautioning against neglecting the interpretation phase. Skipping this step can lead to a superficial understanding of potential scenarios, ultimately impacting strategic effectiveness. This framework serves as a guide for organizations aiming to enhance their strategic foresight capabilities.
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