Scenario-Driven Market Capture Model (Down/Base/Up) (Excel XLSX)

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BENEFITS OF THIS EXCEL DOCUMENT

1. This template lets you quickly size a company's 5-year revenue potential using a clear, top-down TAM → SAM → SOM structure across up to three channels and three scenarios.
2. It turns a small set of high-impact inputs into actionable outputs--gross margin, EBITDA, key KPIs, and visualizations--without requiring a complex bottom-up build.
3. It connects operating assumptions to valuation by letting you apply revenue and/or EBITDA multiples and shares outstanding to estimate annual price per share outcomes.

MARKET RESEARCH EXCEL DESCRIPTION

This product (Scenario-Driven Market Capture Model [Down/Base/Up]) is an Excel template (XLSX), which you can download immediately upon purchase.

Who would use this (main users)

•  Founders / Operators: sanity-check how big the business can get and what it takes to become profitable.
•  Finance / FP&A (or "finance person on a lean team"): build an investment-grade narrative without a heavy bottom-up model.
•  Investors / Venture teams / IB / Corp Dev: quickly pressure-test a company's ceiling, margins, and valuation path across scenarios.
•  Strategy / Growth / GTM leaders: compare channels, sequencing, and rollout timing (start years) with consistent economics.

Why use it (features → benefits)

•  Top-down TAM/SAM/SOM framework → fast, structured sizing without getting lost in operational detail.
•  Up to 3 channels + distinct margins → compare channel economics side-by-side (where to focus, what scales best).
•  3 scenarios (down/base/up) driven by TAM growth + penetration ramp → clean sensitivity bands that are easy to explain to stakeholders.
•  Simple direct cost inputs (%, $/unit) for COGS/variable/direct labor → realistic gross margin and contribution math with minimal inputs.
•  Outputs down to EBITDA + 13 visuals + key KPIs → board/deck-ready story: growth, margins, and profitability trajectory.
•  Valuation + per-share estimates (multiples + share count by year) → connect operating performance to potential equity outcomes.

What you'd use it to analyze (the questions it answers)
•  "How large is the realistic revenue opportunity over the next 5 years if we ramp penetration?"
•  "Which channel drives the best gross margin and EBITDA profile—and when?"
•  "What happens if the market grows slower/faster, or adoption ramps slower/faster?"
•  "At what point do we start making money, and what assumptions drive that?"
•  "What valuation range does this imply under revenue and/or EBITDA multiples, and what's the price per share trajectory?"
•  "How sensitive are results to penetration, TAM growth, and unit economics (cost per unit / % costs)?"

When I built this template, the goal was to help the user look at any company (public or private) and analyze its potential for investment or other reasons. This differs from the 100s of financial models I've built int he past that are usually for internal operators or investors that need more detailed and industry-specific assumptions.

Source: Best Practices in Market Research, Customer Segmentation Excel: Scenario-Driven Market Capture Model (Down/Base/Up) Excel (XLSX) Spreadsheet, Jason Varner | SmartHelping