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BENEFITS OF DOCUMENT

  1. Includes frameworks to help build a strategic foresight capability
  2. Provides a classification of methods used to monitor change drivers and clarify uncertainties
  3. Breaks down a process for running a strategic foresight project

DOCUMENT DESCRIPTION

Even before COVID-19, the world has been witnessing accelerating change and increasing complexity, partly due to the speed of technological development and adoption.

Strategic foresight includes a collection of method to help consider and anticipate an array of possible futures that could impact an organization, making it more adapt at facing "VUCA" - volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.

While a strategic foresight exercise traditionally focused on a 10- to 20-year time horizon, the high levels of uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic requires looking at significantly shorter time horizons.

With the traditional strategic planning assuming a reasonably stable
environment, the strategic planning process can be enhanced by embedding foresight methods and tools.

Contents

1. Strategic Foresight Overview
- Context
- Key definitions
- Why use strategic foresight
- What strategic foresight is not
- Traditional strategic planning versus strategic foresight
- Barriers to strategic foresight and potential counteractions
- Benefits of strategic foresight
- Critical considerations for strategic foresight during a crisis
- A futurist approach to strategic planning for a given uncertainty

2. Strategic Foresight Methods
- The Foresight Diamond
- Examples of foresight methods
- Two directional orientations of foresight methods
- Common tools for corporate foresight practices

3. Strategic Foresight Frameworks

3A. Generic Foresight Process Framework
- Key activities and associated questions
- Key elements and their impact on the process
- Key activities and associated tools

3B. Integrated Foresight Framework
- Key activities and associated tools
- Integrated foresight process

3C. Corporate Foresight Framework
- High-level process based on MNC practices
- Foresight integrated long-term planning

3D. Framework Foresight
- Process with the description of each phase
- Process with the outcome of each phase

4. Undertaking a Strategic Foresight Project
- Phase 1: Frame
- Phase 2: Scan
- PESTEL analysis sample factors
- PESTEL analysis factors - summary slide
- Impact/uncertainty matrix - based on input from PEST or PESTEL analysis
- Impact/uncertainty matrix - summary slide
- Phase 3: Futurize
- The futures cone with alternative futures
- 2 x 2 scenario matrix - summary slide
- Identified key scenarios descriptions - summary slide
- Three horizon approach with scenarios embedded
- Phase 4: Envision
- Phase 5: Design
- Backcasting milestones
- Phase 6: Adapt

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Source: Strategic Foresight and Uncertainty PowerPoint document

 

Strategic Foresight and Uncertainty

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File Type: PowerPoint (pptx)

File Size: 273.7 KB

Number of Slides: 51 (includes cover, transition slides)

Related Topic(s): Strategic Planning COVID-19 Strategic Thinking

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Initial upload date (first version): Oct 12, 2020
Most recent version published: Oct 12, 2020

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