Strategic Foresight and Uncertainty (PowerPoint PPTX)

Even before COVID-19, the world has been witnessing accelerating change and increasing complexity, partly due to the speed of technological development and adoption.

Strategic foresight includes a collection of method to help consider and anticipate an array of possible futures that could impact an organization, making it more adapt at facing "VUCA" – volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.

While a strategic foresight exercise traditionally focused on a 10- to 20-year time horizon, the high levels of uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic requires looking at significantly shorter time horizons.

With the traditional strategic planning assuming a reasonably stable environment, the strategic planning process can be enhanced by embedding foresight methods and tools.

Contents

1. Strategic Foresight Overview
•  Context
•  Key definitions
•  Why use strategic foresight
•  What strategic foresight is not
•  Traditional strategic planning versus strategic foresight
•  Barriers to strategic foresight and potential counteractions
•  Benefits of strategic foresight
•  Critical considerations for strategic foresight during a crisis
•  A futurist approach to strategic planning for a given uncertainty

2. Strategic Foresight Methods
•  The Foresight Diamond
•  Examples of foresight methods
•  Two directional orientations of foresight methods
•  Common tools for corporate foresight practices

3. Strategic Foresight Frameworks

3A. Generic Foresight Process Framework
•  Key activities and associated questions
•  Key elements and their impact on the process
•  Key activities and associated tools

3B. Integrated Foresight Framework
•  Key activities and associated tools
•  Integrated foresight process

3C. Corporate Foresight Framework
•  High-level process based on MNC practices
•  Foresight integrated long-term planning

3D. Framework Foresight
•  Process with the description of each phase
•  Process with the outcome of each phase

4. Undertaking a Strategic Foresight Project
•  Phase 1: Frame
•  Phase 2: Scan
•  PESTEL analysis sample factors
•  PESTEL analysis factors – summary slide
•  Impact/uncertainty matrix – based on input from PEST or PESTEL analysis
•  Impact/uncertainty matrix – summary slide
•  Phase 3: Futurize
•  The futures cone with alternative futures
•  2 x 2 scenario matrix – summary slide
•  Identified key scenarios descriptions – summary slide
•  Three horizon approach with scenarios embedded
•  Phase 4: Envision
•  Phase 5: Design
•  Backcasting milestones
•  Phase 6: Adapt

This PPT provides a comprehensive overview of the benefits of strategic foresight, including the ability to clarify key uncertainties and develop an alert system to monitor critical change drivers. It also delves into various foresight methods and frameworks, offering practical tools for corporate foresight practices.