Strategic Foresight and Uncertainty (PowerPoint PPTX Slide Deck)

BENEFITS OF DOCUMENT

1. Includes frameworks to help build a strategic foresight capability
2. Provides a classification of methods used to monitor change drivers and clarify uncertainties
3. Breaks down a process for running a strategic foresight project

DESCRIPTION

This product (Strategic Foresight and Uncertainty) is a 51-slide PPT PowerPoint presentation slide deck (PPTX), which you can download immediately upon purchase.

Even before COVID-19, the world has been witnessing accelerating change and increasing complexity, partly due to the speed of technological development and adoption.

Strategic foresight includes a collection of method to help consider and anticipate an array of possible futures that could impact an organization, making it more adapt at facing "VUCA" – volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.

While a strategic foresight exercise traditionally focused on a 10- to 20-year time horizon, the high levels of uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic requires looking at significantly shorter time horizons.

With the traditional strategic planning assuming a reasonably stable environment, the strategic planning process can be enhanced by embedding foresight methods and tools.

Contents

1. Strategic Foresight Overview
•  Context
•  Key definitions
•  Why use strategic foresight
•  What strategic foresight is not
•  Traditional strategic planning versus strategic foresight
•  Barriers to strategic foresight and potential counteractions
•  Benefits of strategic foresight
•  Critical considerations for strategic foresight during a crisis
•  A futurist approach to strategic planning for a given uncertainty

2. Strategic Foresight Methods
•  The Foresight Diamond
•  Examples of foresight methods
•  Two directional orientations of foresight methods
•  Common tools for corporate foresight practices

3. Strategic Foresight Frameworks

3A. Generic Foresight Process Framework
•  Key activities and associated questions
•  Key elements and their impact on the process
•  Key activities and associated tools

3B. Integrated Foresight Framework
•  Key activities and associated tools
•  Integrated foresight process

3C. Corporate Foresight Framework
•  High-level process based on MNC practices
•  Foresight integrated long-term planning

3D. Framework Foresight
•  Process with the description of each phase
•  Process with the outcome of each phase

4. Undertaking a Strategic Foresight Project
•  Phase 1: Frame
•  Phase 2: Scan
•  PESTEL analysis sample factors
•  PESTEL analysis factors – summary slide
•  Impact/uncertainty matrix – based on input from PEST or PESTEL analysis
•  Impact/uncertainty matrix – summary slide
•  Phase 3: Futurize
•  The futures cone with alternative futures
•  2 x 2 scenario matrix – summary slide
•  Identified key scenarios descriptions – summary slide
•  Three horizon approach with scenarios embedded
•  Phase 4: Envision
•  Phase 5: Design
•  Backcasting milestones
•  Phase 6: Adapt

This PPT provides a comprehensive overview of the benefits of strategic foresight, including the ability to clarify key uncertainties and develop an alert system to monitor critical change drivers. It also delves into various foresight methods and frameworks, offering practical tools for corporate foresight practices.

Source: Best Practices in COVID-19, Strategic Planning, Strategic Thinking, STEEPLE PowerPoint Slides: Strategic Foresight and Uncertainty PowerPoint (PPTX) Presentation Slide Deck, ILMAM - Strategy & Management Consulting

PPT SLIDE DEEP DIVES

Framework for Strategic Foresight and Future Scenarios

This PPT slide presents a framework for undertaking a strategic foresight project, focusing on the concept of alternative futures. It visually represents a "futures cone," which illustrates how various potential futures can be categorized based on their likelihood and impact over time. The cone is divided into short-term (5-20 years) and medium-term (5-20 years) segments, indicating a time horizon for consideration.

Five classes of alternative futures are outlined: Possible, Plausible, Probable, Preferable, and Wildcard. Each category is defined with specific characteristics. The Possible future represents scenarios that might occur, even if they seem unlikely. Plausible futures are those that could happen based on current knowledge and understanding. The Probable future is characterized by events that are likely to happen, informed by existing trends. The Preferable future reflects scenarios that stakeholders desire, based on subjective value judgments. Lastly, the Wildcard future encompasses low-probability events that could have a significant impact if they were to occur.

This framework encourages organizations to think broadly about potential scenarios, helping them prepare for various outcomes. By understanding these classifications, executives can better navigate uncertainty and make informed strategic decisions. The visual representation aids in grasping the complexity of future possibilities, emphasizing the importance of considering a range of scenarios rather than relying solely on linear projections. This approach is crucial for organizations aiming to remain resilient and adaptable in a rapidly changing environment.

Strategic Planning Process: Framework Foresight Overview

This PPT slide presents a structured approach to "Framework Foresight," detailing a six-phase process aimed at guiding organizations through strategic planning. Each phase is visually represented in a circular format, indicating a continuous cycle rather than a linear progression.

Starting with "Frame," the first phase emphasizes the importance of defining the project's scope, focusing on the central issue and current conditions. This sets the foundation for the entire process. The second phase, "Scan," involves exploring signals of change or indicators that may influence future outcomes. This is crucial for identifying trends and potential disruptions that could impact strategic decisions.

The third phase, "Futurize," focuses on establishing a baseline and envisioning alternative futures. This phase encourages organizations to think creatively about various scenarios that could unfold. Following this, "Envision" allows teams to develop and commit to a preferred future, aligning their vision with actionable goals.

The fifth phase, "Design," is where organizations create prototypes, offerings, and artifacts to achieve their defined vision and objectives. This phase is essential for translating strategic insights into tangible initiatives. Finally, "Adapt" emphasizes the need for flexibility, enabling organizations to adjust their strategies in response to changing circumstances or new information.

Overall, the slide encapsulates a comprehensive framework for organizations looking to enhance their strategic foresight capabilities. It encourages a proactive and iterative approach to planning, equipping leaders with the tools necessary to navigate uncertainty effectively. This structured methodology can be particularly valuable for executives aiming to foster resilience and adaptability in their organizations.

Comparative Analysis: Strategic Planning vs. Foresight

This PPT slide presents a comparative analysis between traditional strategic planning and strategic foresight, highlighting key differences across several dimensions.

Starting with the "Starting Point," traditional planning is anchored in the present, while strategic foresight begins with future possibilities. This fundamental shift in perspective allows organizations to better anticipate changes and adapt proactively.

The "Outlook" section emphasizes that traditional planning assumes a stable environment, which can lead to rigidity. In contrast, strategic foresight embraces uncertainty by considering multiple potential futures, enabling organizations to remain agile in a dynamic landscape.

Interaction styles differ significantly. Traditional planning is top-down, often limiting input from broader teams. Strategic foresight promotes participation, fostering collaboration and diverse perspectives, which can enhance decision-making.

The "Time Horizon" is another critical area of divergence. Traditional planning typically focuses on a 1 to 5-year outlook, which may not be sufficient for long-term sustainability. Strategic foresight extends this horizon to 10 to 20 years or more, encouraging organizations to think beyond immediate challenges.

Output and planning approaches also contrast sharply. Traditional methods set a singular direction, while strategic foresight considers multiple success destinations and courses of action, allowing for flexibility in execution.

Monitoring practices differ as well. Traditional methods involve periodic checks and adaptations, whereas strategic foresight continuously monitors signals and indicators, enabling real-time adjustments.

Lastly, key methods diverge, with traditional planning relying on quantitative forecasts and contingency planning, while strategic foresight employs scenario planning and other innovative tools. This comprehensive overview underscores the need for organizations to evolve their strategic approaches to thrive in an uncertain future.

Strategic Foresight: A Three-Horizon Framework

This PPT slide presents a structured framework for undertaking a strategic foresight project, utilizing a three-horizon approach. This methodology is particularly useful for organizations navigating uncertainty and complexity. The 3 horizons are clearly defined: Horizon 1 focuses on immediate responses, Horizon 2 emphasizes recovery, and Horizon 3 is oriented towards growth.

Each horizon is plotted against time, illustrating the progression from short-term actions to long-term strategic planning. The x-axis represents the timeline, segmented into months and years, while the y-axis denotes the value generated through these strategic initiatives. The visual representation suggests that as organizations move through these horizons, the value they create increases, albeit at different rates and under varying scenarios.

Embedded within each horizon are multiple scenarios, labeled Scenario 1 through Scenario 4. This indicates that organizations should anticipate different potential futures and prepare accordingly. The scenarios serve as a tool for testing assumptions and evaluating the robustness of strategies against various external factors.

The note at the bottom emphasizes that while the three-horizon approach is typically associated with long-term planning, it can be adapted for crisis situations. This flexibility is crucial for organizations that need to pivot quickly in response to unexpected challenges.

Overall, the slide encapsulates a comprehensive approach to strategic foresight, encouraging organizations to think critically about their future while remaining agile in the present. This framework is essential for leaders aiming to navigate uncertainty effectively and position their organizations for sustained success.

Overcoming Barriers to Strategic Foresight

This PPT slide titled "Strategic Foresight Overview" outlines key barriers that organizations face in implementing strategic foresight and presents corresponding actions to counter these obstacles. It is structured in a flowchart format, which visually guides the viewer through a sequence of barriers and actions.

The first barrier identified is the failure to detect changes in the environment. This can lead to missed opportunities or threats. The recommended action is to "Identify" by scanning the entire environment and defining clear responsibilities within the organization. This proactive approach is essential for recognizing shifts that could impact strategic direction.

The second barrier is the perception that detected changes are not relevant. To address this, the slide suggests the "Assess" action, which involves using methods that have high integration capacity. This means employing analytical tools and frameworks that can effectively evaluate the significance of changes.

The third barrier highlights the challenge of convincing decision-makers about the relevance of these changes. The action proposed here is "Convince," which requires utilizing methods with strong communication capacity. This emphasizes the need for clear and persuasive communication to ensure that key stakeholders understand the implications of identified changes.

The fourth barrier pertains to the lack of planned re-action strategies. The corresponding action is "Plan," which involves integrating follow-up processes and defining formal decision-making procedures. This ensures that organizations are not only aware of changes, but also prepared to respond effectively.

Finally, the slide notes that if responsible individuals are not convinced, they may prevent necessary changes. The action "Act" focuses on ensuring that those in charge are engaged and ready to implement changes based on the insights gained.

Overall, this slide serves as a practical guide for organizations looking to enhance their strategic foresight capabilities by identifying barriers and implementing targeted actions.

Framework for Strategic Planning Amid Uncertainty

This PPT slide titled "Strategic Foresight Overview" presents a framework for strategic planning amid uncertainty. It emphasizes a futurist approach, suggesting that organizations should align their vision with tactical and strategic initiatives over varying time horizons. The horizontal axis illustrates the relationship between data, evidence, and certainty, indicating that as time extends, the level of certainty diminishes.

On the left, the slide categorizes actions into "Tactics" for the short term (1-2 years), transitioning to "Strategies" for the medium term (2-5 years), and culminating in a broader "Vision" for long-term planning (5-10 years and beyond). This segmentation highlights the need for organizations to adapt their planning methods based on the timeframe of their initiatives. The visual representation underscores that while immediate tactics can be grounded in concrete data, longer-term strategies and visions require a more nuanced understanding of potential uncertainties.

The slide also hints at the importance of system-level evolution, suggesting that organizations must consider how external factors may influence their strategic direction over time. The call to action is clear: organizations should maintain a focus on their overarching vision while identifying probable events that could impact their strategic landscape. This approach encourages proactive planning rather than reactive responses to unforeseen challenges.

Overall, the slide serves as a guide for executives looking to refine their strategic planning processes, ensuring they remain agile and forward-thinking in an increasingly complex environment.

Framework for Strategic Foresight Approaches

This PPT slide presents a framework for understanding the generic foresight process, highlighting key elements and their influence on strategic outcomes. It categorizes approaches into 4 distinct types: Reactive Strategy Approach, Shallow Foresight Process, Shallow/Narrow Foresight Process, and Robust Foresight Process.

Each approach has a structured flow of inputs, foresight analysis, and outputs that lead to strategic decisions. The Reactive Strategy Approach is positioned as the most basic, relying solely on inputs and analysis to inform strategy. This method lacks depth and may result in missed opportunities for proactive planning.

The Shallow Foresight Process introduces a prospecting element, suggesting a slight enhancement over the reactive approach. However, it still falls short of comprehensive analysis, which limits its effectiveness. The Shallow/Narrow Foresight Process builds on this by incorporating both prospecting and analysis, yet it still doesn't fully leverage the potential of foresight methodologies.

The Robust Foresight Process stands out as the most sophisticated approach. It integrates interpretation alongside analysis and prospecting, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of future possibilities. This comprehensive framework enables organizations to better anticipate changes and adapt strategies accordingly.

The slide emphasizes the importance of undertaking prospecting—essentially asking “What might happen”—while cautioning against neglecting the interpretation phase. Skipping this step can lead to a superficial understanding of potential scenarios, ultimately impacting strategic effectiveness. This framework serves as a guide for organizations aiming to enhance their strategic foresight capabilities.

Framework for Strategic Foresight Methodologies

This PPT slide presents the Foresight Diamond, a framework developed by Popper that categorizes strategic foresight methods based on their nature and approach. It is structured around 4 key dimensions: Creativity, Expertise, Interaction, and Evidence. Each dimension highlights various methods that can be utilized in strategic planning.

Under Creativity, methods such as Wild Cards, Science Fiction, and Brainstorming emphasize imaginative and innovative thinking. These techniques are essential for generating new ideas and exploring unconventional scenarios. The focus here is on leveraging creativity to envision future possibilities.

Expertise encompasses methods that rely on accumulated knowledge and shared insights. Techniques like Roadmapping, Expert Panels, and Morphological Analysis fall under this category. These methods emphasize the importance of drawing from established knowledge and expert opinions to inform strategic decisions.

Interaction highlights methods that depend on collaborative discussions and shared perspectives. Techniques such as Scenario Workshops and Citizen Panels are included here. This dimension underscores the value of engaging stakeholders and fostering dialogue to enhance the strategic foresight process.

Evidence is divided into 3 categories: Quantitative, Semi-Quantitative, and Qualitative. This section emphasizes the importance of data and factual analysis in decision-making. Methods like Quantitative Scenario Planning and Indicators/TSA are examples of approaches that rely heavily on data-driven insights.

Overall, the Foresight Diamond serves as a comprehensive tool for organizations looking to enhance their strategic planning capabilities. By understanding and applying these methods, executives can better navigate uncertainty and make informed decisions that align with their long-term objectives.

Structured Approach to Strategic Foresight

This PPT slide presents an Integrated Foresight Framework, outlining a structured approach to strategic foresight. It emphasizes a systematic process that organizations can adopt to navigate change effectively. The framework is broken down into 5 key steps, each contributing to a comprehensive understanding of potential future scenarios.

The first step involves identifying and monitoring change, focusing on trends, drivers, and emerging issues. This foundational stage is crucial as it sets the context for the subsequent analysis. The second step is about assessing and critiquing the impacts of these changes, which allows organizations to evaluate the significance of various scenarios.

Next, the framework encourages imagining alternative outcomes. This step is vital for fostering creativity and exploring different possibilities that could arise from current trends. Following this, organizations are prompted to envision preferred futures. This forward-thinking approach helps align strategic goals with desired outcomes.

Finally, the last step involves planning and implementing changes based on the insights gained from the previous stages. This ensures that the organization is not only reactive, but also proactive in shaping its future.

The visual representation of the framework illustrates the interconnectedness of these steps, reinforcing the idea that foresight is an ongoing process rather than a one-time event. The inclusion of "Vision, Goals, Values" and "Strategies" highlights the importance of aligning foresight activities with the organization's core mission and strategic objectives. This framework serves as a practical guide for organizations aiming to enhance their strategic planning processes amidst uncertainty.

Framework for Strategic Foresight in Uncertain Environments

This PPT slide presents a Corporate Foresight Framework designed for high-level strategic planning, particularly drawing from practices utilized by multinational companies (MNCs). At its core, the framework emphasizes the importance of understanding and navigating a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) business environment. The visual structure illustrates a process flow that begins with "Scanning external environment," which is crucial for identifying both strong and weak signals that may indicate emerging trends or potential disruptions.

The slide highlights the significance of analyzing external signals, which serves as the foundation for informed decision-making. Following this, the framework includes "Scenario development," a critical step where various future scenarios are crafted based on the analyzed signals. This step is essential for preparing organizations to respond effectively to different potential futures.

Next, "Foresight sessions" are indicated, suggesting collaborative discussions that leverage insights from the previous steps to refine understanding and strategies. The process culminates in "Formulating response strategies," which is where actionable plans are developed to address the insights gained throughout the foresight process. Finally, the framework integrates these strategies into a "Strategic planning system," ensuring that foresight is embedded into the overall strategic framework of the organization.

This structured approach not only aids in anticipating strategic surprises, but also equips organizations to navigate complexities in their operational environments. The framework encourages a proactive mindset, essential for leaders aiming to steer their companies through uncertainty and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Critical Considerations for Strategic Foresight in Crises

This PPT slide titled "Strategic Foresight Overview" outlines essential considerations for implementing strategic foresight during a crisis. It is structured into 5 key areas, each emphasizing a different aspect of planning and decision-making.

The first section advocates for short to medium-term scenario planning. It encourages organizations to project possible futures over 6, 12, and 36 months, which helps in identifying implications and formulating winning strategies. This proactive approach allows firms to better navigate uncertainties.

Next, the slide discusses the importance of balancing short- and long-term planning. It highlights the need to consider the implications of interim crisis mitigation actions on likely futures and to anticipate unintended consequences. This dual focus ensures that immediate actions do not undermine long-term objectives.

The third area emphasizes the necessity of considering multiple options. Organizations are advised to explore various alternatives and test preferred options before making commitments. This flexibility is crucial, as it prevents firms from assuming that options are mutually exclusive early in the decision-making process.

The fourth section suggests studying agile, forward-looking players. It encourages organizations to analyze the responses of those who act swiftly while maintaining a forward view. This insight can reveal new possibilities that may emerge during or after a crisis.

Finally, the slide addresses the need to accelerate digital and customer experience strategies. It prompts organizations to rethink services and solutions to align with future needs and relevant technologies. This forward-thinking approach is vital for staying competitive in a rapidly changing environment.

Overall, the slide serves as a strategic guide for executives looking to enhance their crisis management capabilities through foresight.

Exploratory vs. Normative: Strategic Foresight Approaches

This PPT slide outlines 2 primary orientations of strategic foresight methods: Exploratory and Normative. Each orientation serves a distinct purpose in strategic planning, guiding organizations in their approach to future scenarios.

The Exploratory method begins with the present. It prompts organizations to consider various possibilities by asking, "What could happen if this event occurred?" This approach encourages creative thinking and scenario development, allowing teams to explore different futures and narratives. The visual representation includes elements such as "Different," "Future," and "Stories," highlighting the importance of diverse perspectives and imaginative storytelling in anticipating potential outcomes.

On the other hand, the Normative method starts with a desired future state. It shifts the focus to what needs to happen to achieve that future, posing the question, "What needs to happen for this future to materialize?" This orientation is more goal-oriented, emphasizing the identification of targets and the steps required to reach them. Key components illustrated include "Target," "Achievement," and "Desirable Future," which underscore the necessity of clear objectives and actionable plans in strategic foresight.

Both methods are essential for organizations aiming to navigate uncertainty effectively. They provide frameworks for understanding the present and envisioning the future, allowing leaders to make informed decisions. By employing these foresight methods, organizations can enhance their strategic planning processes and better prepare for various potential scenarios. This slide serves as a foundational overview, setting the stage for deeper exploration into the application of these methods in strategic contexts.

Framework for Scanning and Prioritizing Trends

This PPT slide outlines the second phase of a strategic foresight project, focusing on the "Scan" process. It begins with identifying trends using established frameworks like PEST or PESTEL. This initial step emphasizes the importance of a structured approach to recognize relevant trends that may impact the organization.

Next, the slide details the review process for each identified trend. It specifies that only trends that are either increasing, decreasing, or fundamentally changing should be retained. Additionally, these trends must be backed by credible sources, ensuring that the information is reliable and actionable.

Following the review, the slide introduces the prioritization of trends. This involves sorting the trends based on their potential impact on a defined domain, rated from low to high. Certainty is another criterion for prioritization, ranging from uncertain to completely certain. This dual sorting mechanism helps in focusing efforts on trends that are both impactful and reliable.

Finally, the slide discusses preparation for the next phase. It highlights the importance of carrying over trends that are categorized as having high impact and high uncertainty. This indicates a proactive approach to managing potential risks and opportunities as the project progresses.

Overall, this slide serves as a practical guide for executives looking to implement a systematic approach to trend analysis and strategic foresight. It underscores the necessity of credible data and structured methodologies in navigating complex business environments.

Defining Strategic and Corporate Foresight

This PPT slide presents key definitions related to strategic foresight and corporate foresight, emphasizing their importance in organizational planning and decision-making. The first definition, attributed to Richard Slaughter from 1997, outlines strategic foresight as the capacity to develop and maintain a coherent and functional view of the future. It highlights the necessity of using insights derived from this foresight to identify adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and explore new markets, products, and services. This definition underscores the proactive nature of strategic foresight in navigating uncertainties.

The second definition, provided by Rohrbeck et al. in 2015, elaborates on corporate foresight. It describes it as a process of identifying, observing, and interpreting factors that may induce change within an organization. This definition emphasizes the importance of understanding potential organizational implications and triggering appropriate responses. Corporate foresight is depicted as a collaborative effort involving multiple stakeholders, which creates value by granting access to critical resources ahead of competitors. It prepares organizations for change and enables them to proactively steer towards desired futures.

The slide also notes that while the processes of strategic and corporate foresight are similar, some organizations may interchangeably use the term "strategic foresight" to refer to both policy and organizational planning. This insight is crucial for potential customers as it indicates the versatility and applicability of foresight methodologies in various contexts, suggesting that investing in these frameworks can enhance strategic planning capabilities.