This PPT slide, part of the 51-slide Strategic Foresight and Uncertainty PowerPoint presentation, presents a framework for strategic foresight, illustrating how organizations can explore various future scenarios. Central to this framework is the "futures cone," which visually represents different classes of alternative futures over time. The cone expands from a defined point labeled "Today," indicating the present moment, and extends into the future, specifically within a short-term horizon of 5 to 20 years.

The slide categorizes alternative futures into 5 distinct classes: Possible, Plausible, Probable, Preferable, and Wildcard. Each category is defined by its likelihood and the basis for its consideration. "Possible" futures are those that might occur, even if they seem unlikely. "Plausible" futures are grounded in current knowledge, suggesting a higher likelihood based on existing data. "Probable" futures are those that are likely to happen, informed by ongoing trends. The "Preferable" category reflects futures that stakeholders desire, based on value judgments. Lastly, "Wildcard" scenarios represent unexpected events that could have significant impacts.

This framework encourages organizations to think critically about potential developments and their implications. By understanding these categories, decision-makers can better prepare for uncertainties and align their strategies accordingly. The visual representation aids in grasping the complexity of future possibilities, emphasizing the importance of strategic foresight in navigating an unpredictable environment. This approach can be particularly valuable for organizations aiming to enhance their resilience and adaptability in the face of change.

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Strategic Planning COVID-19 Strategic Thinking PEST Strategic Foresight