Business Turnaround Scenario & Sensitivity Financial Model (Excel XLSX)

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BENEFITS OF THIS EXCEL DOCUMENT

1. This template lets operators and owners quickly forecast a 12–24 month turnaround (with Years 3–5 visibility) using simple, business-agnostic drivers instead of building a bespoke model from scratch.
2. The built-in 10-scenario toggle and side-by-side sensitivity tables make it easy to compare downside/base/upside outcomes and identify which assumptions matter most.
3. The deal-structure framework (fees, equity kicker, exit vs. GP buyout, and financing assumptions) plus the built-in logic checks help ensure the operational plan and transaction terms stay coherent and negotiation-ready.

RESTRUCTURING EXCEL DESCRIPTION

This product (Business Turnaround Scenario & Sensitivity Financial Model) is an Excel template (XLSX), which you can download immediately upon purchase.

Think of this template like a flight simulator for a business turnaround. You're not trying to recreate every bolt and wire of the real airplane (the company's accounting system); you're practicing the critical maneuvers like stabilizing cash flow, improving profitability, and choosing a safe landing plan (sell, keep operating, or buy out). You start with a snapshot of where the plane is today (the trailing 12 months), then you test different control inputs and growth assumptions, cost changes, financing terms to see how the business behaves over the next 12–24 months and beyond.

At its core, the model works like a thermostat and timer rather than a detailed blueprint. You enter a starting monthly level for major line items (revenue and costs), then you tell the model how those numbers should change over time using percentage-based "dials." Instead of asking you to micromanage every month differently, it splits the first 24 months into three time blocks, like "Phase 1: triage," "Phase 2: repairs," and "Phase 3: stabilization." After that, it shifts to annual assumptions for Years 3–5, acting more like setting cruise control once the business is flying steadily.

For costs, the template behaves like a two-part recipe: one ingredient scales with the size of the meal, and the other stays relatively fixed. The "scales with the meal" part is direct costs modeled as a percentage of revenue (variable costs). The "fixed ingredient" is direct costs modeled as a dollar input (fixed or semi-fixed costs). That structure lets you capture most real-life turnaround levers such as pricing and margin repair, vendor renegotiations, and operational efficiency without forcing you into an overly complex cost model that only works for one industry.

The scenario feature is best thought of as a lighting board with presets. Instead of manually re-adjusting every slider each time you want to see a different outcome, you can build up to 10 "presets" (downside, base, upside, lender case, aggressive case, etc.). Then you flip one switch and the entire model updates. The sensitivity tables are like having all your presets displayed side-by-side, so you can immediately see how the ending changes when the assumptions change as well as what's driving the difference, what's resilient, and what breaks first.

Finally, the deal structure portion is like a choose-your-own-adventure map for the GP/operator and the owners. The operator steps in under a 12-month contract and earns compensation through fees and potentially an equity kicker tied to value creation. This is similar to earning a performance bonus for getting the ship back on course. From there, the path can branch: owners can sell (with an optional GP facilitation fee), keep operating, or the GP can buy out the business using tools like seller financing (PIK), a stabilized loan, and exit multiples. The "check" table functions like guardrails on that map as it flags when you've selected two routes that can't logically happen at the same time, so the story of the turnaround remains consistent from inputs to outcome.

Source: Best Practices in Restructuring, Scenario Planning Excel: Business Turnaround Scenario & Sensitivity Financial Model Excel (XLSX) Spreadsheet, Jason Varner | SmartHelping