Business Survival Probability Financial Model (Excel XLSX)

VIDEO DEMO

BENEFITS OF THIS EXCEL DOCUMENT

1. Quantifies business survival probability under uncertainty
2. Enables data-driven funding and strategic decisions
3. Captures risk and variability using Monte Carlo simulation

MONTE CARLO EXCEL DESCRIPTION

Business Survival Probability Financial Model is an Excel template (XLSX) with a supplemental Excel document available for immediate download upon purchase.

MODEL OVERVIEW
The Business Survival Probability Model assesses whether a business will remain solvent over a 5-year period by analysing its projected cash flows under uncertainty. Instead of relying on a single forecast, the model combines a fully integrated 3-statement financial projection (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement) with a Monte Carlo simulation engine (1,000 iterations) to generate a range of possible outcomes.
Users can simulate multiple revenue streams and growth profiles, model cost structures and incorporate capital expenditure and depreciation, alongside probability-based funding events (equity and debt). The model explicitly analyses the impact of uncertainty across all key financial drivers, providing a realistic view of performance and risk.
It tracks monthly cash balances and net asset balances across all scenarios, determining survival based on liquidity and identifying when and how often cash falls below zero.
Key outputs include:
• Mean financial statement projection outcomes
• Probability of survival and failure over 5 years
• Cash runway and timing of potential failure
• Average minimum cash position
• Distribution of cash balances and net asset outcomes
Built using best-practice financial modelling principles, the model provides a clear, decision-focused framework to evaluate financial resilience, plan funding needs and understand risk answering the critical question: Will the business run out of cash, and what does it take to avoid it?

KEY OUTPUTS
The key outputs include:
•  Mean Projected full financial statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement) presented on a monthly basis across 5 years and summarised on an annual basis.
•  Mean Projection Dashboard with:
•  Summarised projected Income Statement and Balance Sheet;
•  Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for each summarised income statement and balance sheet line item;
•  List of key ratios including average revenue growth, average profit margins, average return on assets and equity and average debt to equity ratio;
•  Tables and Bar charts summarising revenue, direct expenses and rental volumes;
•  Charts and graphs showing: cash balance by month, cash flow statement breakdown and income statement breakdown.
•  Business Survival Dashboard with:
•  Key metrics on total projected funding, survival probability, failure probability, cash runway and average minimum cash position
•  Distribution of cash balances and net assets in table and graphical format.
•  Summary of projected funding.

KEY INPUTS
Setup Inputs:
•  Name of business;
•  Currency;
•  First projection year and month;
•  Naming for revenue streams, operating costs, fixed assets, borrowings and share capital addition events;

Actuals Inputs:
•  Opening balance sheet (for existing businesses);

Projection Inputs:
•  Revenue assumptions including mean revenue for first 12 months and growth rates thereafter, uncertainty percentages, credit terms offered and bad debt percentages.
•  Variable cost assumptions including variable cost percentages, uncertainty percentages and average credit terms received.
•  Other operating costs including inflation rates and uncertainty percentages;
•  corporate tax inputs including rate and payment periods;
•  Fixed assets including addition amounts, useful life and uncertainty percentates;
•  Borrowings including addition amounts, interest rate, maturity date, funding probability and interest rate uncertainty;
•  Share capital additions including addition month and probability;

MODEL STRUCTURE
The model comprises of 8 tabs split into input ('i_'), calculation ('c_'), output ('o_') and system tabs. The tabs to be populated by the user are the input tabs ('i_Setup' and 'i_Assumptions'). The calculation tabs use the user-defined inputs to calculate and produce the projection outputs which are presented in 'o_Fin Stats' and ‘o_Dashboard'.

KEY FEATURES
•  The model contains a flexible timeline with 60 projection months;
•  Timeline is split on a monthly basis and summarised on an annual basis;
•  The model is not password protected and can be modified as required following download;
•  The model allows for the following number of underlying categories for each line item (these can be easily expanded if required):
•  Revenue Streams – 3 types;
•  Operating Expenses – 10 types;
•  Fixed Assets – 5 types;
•  Borrowings – 3 types
•  Share capital additions – 5 funding events
•  Outputs are presented on a deterministic (mean) basis and a stochastic basis (1,000 simulations), highlighting the potential variability in results driven by key financial assumptions.
•  Business name, currency, starting projection period are fully customisable;
•  Revenue, costs and fixed asset descriptions are fully customisable;
•  The model includes instructions, checks and input validations to help ensure input fields are populated accurately;
•  The model includes a checks dashboard which summarises all the checks included in the various tabs making it easier to identify any errors.

SUPPORT / MODIFICATIONS
We are keen to ensure our customers are satisfied and find the models useful for their financial projection needs. Our models are developed with the user in mind and include instructions, line-item explanations, checks and input validations to ensure they are as user-friendly and easy to use as possible without requiring extensive knowledge of Microsoft Excel, finance or accounting. If any questions do arise, we are more than happy to assist. We are also happy to support with any be-spoke modifications you may require to the models to better suit your business needs. To get in touch, please send us a message through the website or contact us on:
We are also always keen to receive feedback so please do let us know what you think of our models by sending us a message or submitting a review.

ABOUT PROJECTIFY
We are financial modelling professionals with experience working in big 4 business modelling teams and strong experience supporting businesses with their financial modelling and decision support needs. Our aim is to provide robust and easy-to-use tools that follow good practice financial modelling guidelines and assist individuals and businesses with their financial projection and analysis requirements.

Source: Best Practices in Monte Carlo, Integrated Financial Model Excel: Business Survival Probability Financial Model Excel (XLSX) Spreadsheet, Projectify