Retail Outlet Startup/Existing Business Financial Projection 3 Statement Model (Excel XLSX)

A retail outlet's Financial Projection model is vital as it provides a clear financial roadmap for the business. It aids in prudent financial planning, helping to manage inventory, staffing, and operational costs efficiently. By forecasting sales and expenses, it enables businesses to set realistic goals and anticipate cash flow needs. This model is invaluable when seeking loans or investments, as it demonstrates financial viability and potential returns to stakeholders. In sum, a well-constructed financial projection model is essential for optimizing retail operations, ensuring profitability, and attracting necessary capital for growth.

PURPOSE OF MODEL
Highly versatile and user-friendly Excel model for the preparation of a rolling 3 statement (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement) financial projection for a new or existing retail business selling goods through an outlet (e.g. grocery store, clothing store, household store, restaurant, beverage store,etc). The model also incorporates a discounted cash flow valuation calculation using the projected cash flows. The model follows best practice financial modelling principles and includes instructions, line item explanations, checks and input validations.

KEY OUTPUTS
The key outputs include:
•  Projected full financial statements (Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash flow Statement) for any of the 3 scenarios, presented on a quarterly basis across up to 5 years and summarised on an annual basis.
•  Dashboard with:
Summarised projected Income Statement and Balance Sheet
Compounded Annual Growth rate (CAGR) for each summarised income statement and Balance Sheet line item
List of key ratios including Average revenue growth, Average profit margins, Average return on assets and equity and Average Debt to Equity ratio. o Bar charts summarising income statement and Balance Sheet projections
Gross Profit margin by revenue stream in table and bar-chart format
•  Discounted cash flow valuation using the projected cash flow output.

KEY INPUTS
Inputs are split into Income Statement and Balance Sheet Inputs. Most inputs include user-friendly line item explanations and input validations to help users understand what the input is for and populate correctly.

Setup Inputs:
•  Name of business;
•  Currency;
•  First projection year and quarter;
•  Naming for product categories, variable costs, staff costs, other expenses and fixed assets;
•  Sales tax applicability for revenue streams, variable costs, other expenses and fixed Inputs:
•  Opening balance sheet (for existing businesses);
•  Income Statement actuals (for trend analysis);Projection Inputs:
•  Revenue inputs including average traffic by week day, monthly seasonality factor, conversion rate, sales mix by product category and credit terms offered;
•  Cost of Goods sold including cost per product category, safety stock and average credit terms received;
•  Other costs inputs including other variable costs, staff costs, marketing costs and fixed costs;- Sales and corporate tax inputs including rate and payment periods;
•  Dividend inputs including amount (percentage of retained earnings) and frequency;
•  Fixed Assets including addition amounts and useful life;
•  Borrowings including addition amounts and interest rate;
•  Share Capital additions;
•  Discount rate inputs (for valuation calculation).

MODEL STRUCTURE
The model comprises of 9 tabs split into input ('i_'), calculation ('c_'), output ('o_') and system tabs. The tabs to be populated by the user are the input tabs ('i_Setup', ‘i_Actuals' and 'i_Assumptions'). The calculation tab uses the user-defined inputs to calculate and produce the projection outputs which are presented in 'o_Fin Stats', ‘o_Charts' and ‘o_DCF'.System tabs include:- A 'Front Sheet' containing a disclaimer, instructions and contents; – A Checks dashboard containing a summary of checks by tab.

KEY FEATURES
Other key features of this model include the following:
•  The model follows best practice financial modelling guidelines and includes instructions, line item explanations, checks and input validations;
•  The model is not password protected and can be modified as required following download;
•  The model has been reviewed using specialised model audit software to ensure consistency of formulas and significantly reduce risk of errors;
•  The model contains a dynamic timeline that allows for a mix of Actual and Forecast period across a 5-year period allowing projections to be rolled forward with minimal effort;
•  Timeline is split on a monthly basis and summarised on an annual basis;
•  The model allows the user to model 5 separate product categories;
•  Costs are split into: variable and other costs for better driver-based forecasting;
•  The model allows for the following number of underlying categories for each line item (these can be easily expanded if required):
Product Categories – 5 categories;
Cost of Goods Sold – 5 categories (1 for each Product Category);
Other Variable costs – 3 categories;
Staff costs – 5 categories;
Marketing costs – 3 categories;
Other expenses – 10 categories;
Fixed assets – 3 categories.
•  Apart from projecting revenue and costs the tool includes the possibility to model receivables and payables, fixed assets, borrowings, dividends, corporate tax and sales tax;
•  Business Name, currency, starting projection period are fully customisable;
•  Revenue, Cost and Fixed Asset descriptions are fully customisable;
•  The model included an integrated discounted cash flow valuation using the projected cash flow outputs;
•  The model includes instructions, line item explanations, checks and input validations to help ensure input fields are populated accurately;
•  The model includes a checks dashboard which summarises all the checks included in the various tabs making it easier to identify any errors.