LNG Liquefaction Plant – Project Finance Model (Excel XLSX)

BENEFITS OF THIS EXCEL DOCUMENT

1. Presents an up to 15 years forecast and profitability analysis of a development and operating scenario for an LNG Liquefaction Plant.

OIL & GAS EXCEL DESCRIPTION

Editor Summary LNG Liquefaction Plant – Project Finance Model is an XLSX financial model that delivers up to 15 years of forecast and profitability analysis for an LNG liquefaction development and operating scenario. Read more Built by Profit Vision and a certified Financial Modeling & Valuation Analyst with 20+ years’ experience, the template models 2 operations agreements (Tolling Plant and Export Oriented Unit), includes loan amortization, investor distribution waterfall, scenario analysis (Base/Upside/Downside), and key metrics (IRR, MOIC, Payback, NPV); sold as a digital download on Flevy.

Use this model when evaluating the financial feasibility, investor returns, or financing structure for an LNG liquefaction project—whether comparing commercial structures, sizing development budgets, or stress-testing returns under different market conditions.

  Project finance analysts building monthly and annual cash-flow forecasts and calculating IRR, MOIC, Payback, and NPV for lender underwriting.
  Infrastructure or private equity investors modeling investor distributions and LP preferred returns using a 2-tier waterfall.
  Energy project developers preparing a four-phase development budget, sources & uses, and a 15-year hiring/payroll schedule.
  Corporate finance teams assessing tax credits (ITC & PTC), CapEx/Opex sensitivities, and debt schedules with moratorium or interest-only periods.

The model’s modular assumptions-driven layout and scenario analysis follow Financial Modeling Best Practices principles.

An LNG liquefaction plant processes natural gas by cooling it to -162°C, transforming it into liquefied natural gas (LNG) for efficient storage and transport. These facilities remove impurities and heavy hydrocarbons before compressing the gas into liquid form, significantly reducing its volume. LNG liquefaction plants are essential for exporting natural gas to global markets, especially where pipelines are not feasible, supporting energy trade and supply diversification.

This Finance Model provides a dynamic (up to 15 years) forecast and profitability analysis of a development and operating scenario for an LNG Liquefaction Plant. The main purpose of the model is to enable users to get a solid understanding of the financial feasibility of the project and to evaluate the return to investors.

The model provides 2 different operations agreements the investors have entered into with the Government.

Tolling Plant: Tolling is a new model of LNG plant operation. Under tolling, a customer (natural gas supplier) pays a toll to run gas through a liquefaction plant owned by another company. The plant owner is merely interested in providing the liquefaction services and collecting the toll. This model is practical in the United States.
Export Oriented Unit: A merchant commercial structure, where thhe producer of natural gas is a different entity than the owner of the LNG export facilities, and the LNG liquefaction project company purchases natural gas from the upstream E&P project company under a long-term natural gas sale and purchase agreement.

The structure of the template follows Financial Modeling Best Practices principles and is fully customizable.

Model Structure

•  Setup Assumptions
This section is used to input all the assumptions for the project.
It includes assumptions for Project Timing, Plant Development Budget, Selection of Operations Agreement (Export or Tolling), Plant Capacity and Efficiency, Upstream Gas input and LNG export, Pricing (Revenue and COGS), Tax Credit Incentives (ITC & PTC), CapEx, Opex & Financing

•  Development Budget
This section includes all assumptions for the development of infrastructure for operations of a LNG Regasification Plant to commence.
It includes Land Costs, Plant Development Costs and Other Development Expenses and is broken down into 4 development phases

•  Payroll
This section includes assumptions for the positions, number of employess and salaries per position and a 15-year hiring schedule. 

•  Loan Schedule
Loan amortization Schedule of project's debt including an optional moratorium and interest-only (IO) period.  

•  Scenarios
Scenario Ananysis for Plant's Utilization, Revenue, COGS and OpEx using 3 different approaches (Base, Upside and Downside scenario).

•  Project Cash Flows and Return Metrics
Presentation of Project's Cash Flow and Returns including the below reports:
– Monthly Project Cash Flow
– Annual Project Cash Flow
– Plant Financing and Tax Supporting Schedules
– Key Performance Indicators
– Unlevered & Levered Project Return Metrics (IRR, MOIC, Payback, NPV)
– Business Performance Dashboard

•  Investors Distribution Waterfall
A Private Equity 2-Tier Investors Distribution Waterfall Model including LPs Preferred Return (Hurdle Rate)

•  Project Executive Summary
Professional Executive Summary report containing all of the high-level relevant information for review and is designed to be easy to read, print, and save to pdf. The report includes Project General Info, Timing, Sources, and Uses of Cash, Operations Summary and Key Metrics, Project and Investor return metrics.

Instructions on the use of the model are included in the Excel file.

Help & Support

Committed to high quality and customer satisfaction, all our templates follow best practice financial modeling principles and are thoughtfully and carefully designed, keeping the user's needs and comfort in mind.
No matter if you have no experience or you are well versed in finance, accounting, and the use of Microsoft Excel, our professional financial models are the right tools to boost your business operations!
If you however experience any difficulty while using this template and you are not able to find the appropriate guidance in the provided instructions, please feel free to contact us for assistance.
If you need a template customized for your business requirements, please e-mail us and provide a brief explanation of your specific needs.

TOPIC FAQ

What inputs do I need to build a financial model for an LNG liquefaction plant?

Core inputs include project timing, plant development budget, selection of operations agreement (Tolling or Export), plant capacity and efficiency, upstream gas supply assumptions, LNG export volumes, pricing (revenue and COGS), tax credit incentives (ITC & PTC), CapEx, OpEx, payroll, and financing terms captured in the Setup Assumptions section.

How do tolling and export-oriented commercial structures affect revenue and cost modelling for an LNG plant?

Under a Tolling Plant structure the plant owner records toll revenue charged to gas suppliers, shifting commodity price exposure to the customer; an Export Oriented Unit involves the project buying gas and selling LNG, exposing the project to natural gas input costs and LNG price volatility. The model explicitly includes both operations agreements.

Which outputs and KPIs should I expect from an LNG project finance model?

Typical outputs are monthly and annual project cash flows, financing and tax supporting schedules, a business performance dashboard, and investor return metrics including unlevered and levered IRR, MOIC, Payback, and NPV as primary KPIs.

What features should I prioritize when selecting a downloadable LNG finance model template?

Prioritize a modular assumptions sheet, multi-year forecasting (up to 15 years), scenario functionality (Base/Upside/Downside), detailed loan amortization with optional moratorium/interest-only periods, and investor distribution modeling such as a 2-tier waterfall and LP hurdle rates.

How much expertise or time is required to use and customize a template like this for my project?

The template includes instructions within the Excel file and is designed for users ranging from novice to experienced modelers; support and customization assistance are offered by the author if needed, and the file supports up to 15 years of forecasting and a 15-year hiring schedule.

Can a project finance model handle debt features like moratoriums and interest-only periods?

Yes. A proper LNG project finance template includes a Loan Schedule with loan amortization and optional moratorium and interest-only (IO) periods to model staged repayments and lender-negotiated grace periods.

How are scenario analyses typically structured for LNG plant financials?

Scenario analysis commonly adjusts utilization, revenue, COGS, and OpEx across defined cases—Base, Upside, and Downside—to stress-test project economics and stakeholder returns; this model provides 3 scenarios for comparative analysis.

How are private equity investor distributions modeled in project finance templates?

Private equity distributions are often implemented as multi-level waterfalls that allocate cashflows to return capital and preferred returns before carried interest; this template includes a Private Equity 2-Tier Investors Distribution Waterfall with an LP preferred return (hurdle rate).

Source: Best Practices in Oil & Gas, Integrated Financial Model Excel: LNG Liquefaction Plant – Project Finance Model Excel (XLSX) Spreadsheet, Profit Vision