The first step in sizing a market for a disruptive technology is identifying the target market. This involves understanding who the potential customers are, what needs the technology fulfills, and how it differs from existing solutions. Organizations must delve into demographic, geographic, and psychographic characteristics of the potential market to define the target audience precisely. For instance, the introduction of electric vehicles (EVs) targeted environmentally conscious consumers and tech-savvy individuals looking for the latest innovations in transportation. This targeting was not just about replacing existing car models but creating a new paradigm in personal and public transportation.

Moreover, it's essential to consider the adoption curve for new technologies, often represented by the technology adoption lifecycle model. This model highlights the innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards. Each group's size and characteristics can significantly influence the market size and growth trajectory. For example, a Gartner report on emerging technologies emphasizes the importance of focusing on the early adopters and innovators in the initial stages of market penetration, as these groups are most likely to adopt disruptive technologies early on.

Additionally, understanding the regulatory environment and potential barriers to entry is crucial. These factors can significantly impact the speed at which a technology can be adopted and can either constrain or facilitate market growth. For instance, the adoption of drone technology for commercial delivery services is heavily influenced by aviation and safety regulations in different jurisdictions.

Once the target market has been identified, the next step is to estimate the market demand. This involves analyzing the size of the potential market and the rate at which the technology is likely to be adopted. Market research firms often use surveys, focus groups, and historical data from analogous markets to estimate initial demand. For example, before the widespread adoption of smartphones, analysts looked at the adoption rates of cell phones and PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants) to forecast the potential market for smartphones.

Another key factor in estimating market demand is understanding the price sensitivity of potential customers. This requires an analysis of how much customers are willing to pay for the new technology, which can be influenced by the perceived value of the technology, the cost of alternatives, and the overall economic climate. For instance, the adoption of solar panels has been significantly influenced by decreasing costs, increased efficiency, and government incentives, making them more accessible to a broader market.

It's also important to consider the impact of complementary goods and services on market demand. The success of electric vehicles, for example, is not solely dependent on the vehicles themselves but also on the availability of charging stations, maintenance services, and government policies supporting EV adoption. The ecosystem surrounding the disruptive technology can often be a critical factor in determining its market size and growth potential.

Understanding the competitive landscape is crucial for sizing the market for a disruptive technology. This involves analyzing existing solutions, potential competitors, and the likelihood of new entrants into the market. A SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) can provide valuable insights into the competitive dynamics and help identify potential barriers to entry that could protect the market from saturation.

For disruptive technologies, it's also important to consider indirect competitors and substitute products that could limit market growth. For example, the rise of video streaming services not only disrupted traditional cable and satellite TV providers but also created competition among different streaming platforms and even alternative forms of entertainment like social media and video games.

Furthermore, strategic partnerships and alliances can play a significant role in shaping the competitive landscape. Collaborations between technology providers and established market players can accelerate market adoption and expand the potential market size. For instance, the partnership between Google and car manufacturers to integrate Android Auto into vehicles is an example of how strategic alliances can open up new market opportunities for disruptive technologies.