This PPT slide, part of the 62-slide Strategy Chessboard PowerPoint presentation, addresses two fundamental assumptions in strategy development that have been challenged by historical evidence. It highlights that the notion of industries being predictable is often flawed. Examples such as the real estate and finance sectors, which experienced significant turmoil during the 2008 crisis, illustrate this unpredictability. The renewable energy sector faces regulatory uncertainties, while the pharmaceutical industry has seen major setbacks with blockbuster drugs failing to deliver expected results. Emerging markets, despite their potential, can be volatile, as evidenced by their rebound in 2009. The telecom sector has witnessed rapid shifts in technology adoption, particularly with smartphones, while the internet has shown a trend of swift acceptance.

The second assumption—that companies will always adapt their positions—also comes under scrutiny. The slide cites examples like Southwest and Ryanair, which successfully carved out low-cost carrier segments, and IKEA, which has effectively changed consumer behavior by encouraging self-assembly of furniture. The dominance of Microsoft and Wintel in creating a standard operating environment further illustrates how companies can solidify their positions rather than adapt.

The overarching message is clear: as we enter the Fourth Industrial Revolution, expecting industries to behave predictably is increasingly unrealistic. This insight is crucial for executives considering strategic planning in an environment characterized by rapid change and uncertainty. Understanding these dynamics can help in navigating the complexities of modern markets and making informed decisions.

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