Litigation Finance Portfolio Model with Monte Carlo – Excel XLSX

BENEFITS OF THIS DOWNLOADABLE EXCEL DOCUMENT

1. Connects case-level probability, timing, funding and recovery terms to portfolio-level MOIC, IRR, NPV and fund economics.
2. Quantifies downside and concentration through correlation, a 1,000-iteration Monte Carlo engine, loss probability, VaR/CVaR and risk dashboards.
3. Supports investment-committee decisions with staged draw schedules, an LP/GP recovery waterfall, case drilldown, Bull/Base/Bear scenarios, sensitivity analysis and executive dashboards.

FINANCIAL MODELING EXCEL DESCRIPTION

Litigation Finance Portfolio Model with Monte Carlo is an Excel template (XLSX) with a supplemental PDF document available for immediate download upon purchase.

Litigation Finance Portfolio Model with Monte Carlo

This Excel model provides a structured framework for underwriting and monitoring a litigation-finance portfolio from individual case assumptions through fund-level return and downside-risk analysis. It is built for investment teams that need to combine non-linear legal outcomes, staged funding, duration uncertainty, contractual recovery economics, portfolio concentration, correlation and LP/GP fund economics in one connected workbook.

The model starts with fund and portfolio assumptions covering fund size, discount rate, target IRR, management fee, operating expense rate, fund term, preferred return, GP carry, scenario selection, concentration and budget warning thresholds, Monte Carlo settings, correlation weights, branch assumptions and milestone draw percentages. A 30-case illustrative register captures case category, jurisdiction, law firm or originator, investment date, claim value, commitment, fee multiple, award share, recovery cap, positive-outcome probability, cost-overrun reserve, status, stage and merits score.

Case economics are developed through a probability-tree engine with mutually exclusive resolution branches, scenario-adjusted probabilities, realized award assumptions, capital at resolution, contractual funder recovery, branch MOIC and discounted recovery. A PERT duration engine models minimum, most-likely and maximum resolution periods. A staged budget and draw schedule allocates funding across filing, discovery, expert work, trial preparation and trial or appeal reserve milestones.

The portfolio layer calculates expected deployed capital, expected gross recovery, discounted recovery, expected MOIC, risk-adjusted MOIC, implied IRR, expected NPV, positive-outcome probability, portfolio weight and expected budget utilization. A pairwise correlation matrix incorporates systematic exposure and shared case category, law firm and jurisdiction effects. A recovery waterfall then connects case-level economics to management costs, operating expenses, LP capital, preferred return and GP carry.

For downside analysis, the workbook includes a 1,000-iteration deterministic Monte Carlo engine using pre-seeded correlated simulation factors. The results module reports expected net MOIC and IRR, standard deviation, probability of loss, 95% and 99% VaR and CVaR, expected duration, expected gross recovery, expected net LP proceeds, a return histogram, cumulative probability and percentile profiles.

Executive portfolio and risk dashboards summarize capital, recovery, return, concentration, duration, correlation, budget utilization and tail risk. A case-detail drilldown supports matter-level review, while Bull, Base and Bear scenarios and a one-way sensitivity tornado help users assess the effect of award realization, positive-outcome probability, resolution duration, recovery economics and capital deployment.

The workbook also contains operating instructions, a navigator, workbook-authored disclosures, an internal control register and a glossary. It is intended for litigation-finance funds, alternative-investment managers, underwriting teams, portfolio and risk analysts, finance professionals, advisors and investment committees seeking a detailed Excel decision tool rather than a simple single-case return calculator.

Seller-supplied and already tested; no Studio workbook audit was performed.

Source: Best Practices in Financial Modeling, Portfolio Management Excel: Litigation Finance Portfolio Model with Monte Carlo Excel (XLSX) Spreadsheet, PDMM Financial Models