Expert Sensitivity Analysis for Upstream Petroleum Models – Excel XLSX

BENEFITS OF THIS DOWNLOADABLE EXCEL DOCUMENT

1. Provides a framework approach for evaluating Project Models using sensitivity (Tornado) Model
2. Support project decision models with insightful charts and analysis
3. Provides insights to what are core risks to provides to show mitigating strategies to address them

OIL & GAS EXCEL DESCRIPTION

Editor Summary Expert Sensitivity Analysis for Upstream Petroleum Models is an XLSX financial model by Desyton Energy Advisors that delivers sensitivity and valuation analysis for 2 standalone projects (Oil, Gas) across 11 worksheets. Read more It models economic and operating assumptions, capital and operating expenses, Gross Operating Cash Flow (GOCF), abandonment provisions (unit‑of‑production), post‑economic limit testing, reserves (BOE) and valuation metrics (NPV, IRR, FCF). Forecasts are selectable up to 20 years; sold as a digital download on Flevy with immediate digital download.

Use this model when you need to evaluate upstream oil and gas project economics under market volatility, test price and production scenarios, or prepare investment-ready executive summaries for capital decisions.
  Petroleum financial analysts building NPV/IRR sensitivity tables and free cash flow forecasts under alternate oil and gas price scenarios.
  Reserves engineers converting production profiles into BOE-based economic inputs for valuation and reserve reporting.
  Asset managers assessing abandonment liabilities using unit‑of‑production provisioning and post‑economic limit shutoff tests.
  Investment committees preparing concise executive summaries and dashboard-ready charts for committee review.
The template follows standard financial modeling best practices used in oil and gas project appraisals.

The main purpose of the model is to enable users to get a robust understanding of the business sensitivity analysis of the Oil and gas project and to evaluate the project outcomes in event of market fluctuations

The model includes calculations of 11 robust worksheets of 2 standalone projects (Oil, Gas) with prices economic and operating assumptions, capital & operating expenses models, GOCF Applications, Abandonment provisions & Project Valuation including sensitivity analysis

The model is dynamic and allows users to select the desired forecasted Years (up to 20 years). Output Reports summary & Model Charts are dynamically updated based on the selected forecast periods

The structure of the template follows standard Financial Modeling Best Practices in an oil and gas industry principles and is fully customizable to actual project scenario

Model Structure

•Project Inputs & Sensitivity
This section will address the core model drivers and input on sensitivity and the case scenarios
•        Assumptions
This section will address the model assumptions considering the Economic and developments costs
•        Economic Input
This section will address the Inflation, Escalation, Oil and Gas Prices including potential losses), Discounts, Oil and Gas production Scenarios.
•        Revenue Projections
This section will address the production and Price based scenario to produce reasonable projections.
•        Gross Operating Cash Flow (GOCF)
This section will address the operation cash flow of both oil and gas assets
•        Abandonment Modelling
This section will address oil and gas assets abandonment provisions using the Unit of production Approaches.
•        Post Economic Limit Analysis Modelling
This section will address oil and gas post Economic Limit test approaches considering the Economic limits automatic shutoff of uneconomic cash flows
•        Reserves Modelling
This section will address the Oil and Gas Reserves modelling with BOE analysis of both assets.
•        Financial Valuations Modelling
This section will address all economic yardsticks including the Free Cash Flow approach of NPV, IRR, Reserves, NCF ratio, Payouts, Forward NPV, IRR, MCE etc
•        Project Executive Summary
Professional Executive Summary (can be used for investment decisions) containing all of the high-level relevant information for review and is designed to be easy to read, print, and save to pdf.
•        Business Performance Dashboards
Presentation of Project results through sophisticated charts & graphs with drop boxes for flexible scenario and charts been updated to reflect the actual scenarios.
Help & Support
At Desyton, We are committed to world class standards and customer requirements, all our templates follow oil and gas financial modeling principles and are built carefully, keeping the user's needs in mind.

If you however experience any difficulty while using this template, please feel free to contact us for assistance.
If you need a template customized for your business requirements, please e-mail Desyton Energy() and provide a concise explanation of your business modelling specific needs.

TOPIC FAQ

What is Gross Operating Cash Flow (GOCF) and how is it used in upstream project models?

Gross Operating Cash Flow (GOCF) represents operating cash generated by oil and gas assets before financing and taxes. In upstream models it is used to assess operational profitability, feed valuation calculations, and support post‑economic limit tests. Desyton’s model includes a dedicated GOCF worksheet for both oil and gas assets.

How are abandonment provisions typically modeled for oil and gas assets?

Abandonment provisions in upstream models allocate decommissioning costs over production using an accounting approach. The document specifies using a unit‑of‑production approach to attribute abandonment costs across output, and includes an abandonment modelling section that implements this Unit of Production approach.

Which valuation metrics should I expect in an upstream petroleum financial model?

Upstream valuation commonly uses free cash flow approaches and investment metrics such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), reserves metrics, NCF ratio, payout, and forward NPV/IRR. Flevy’s Expert Sensitivity Analysis for Upstream Petroleum Models explicitly models NPV, IRR and Free Cash Flow metrics.

What forecast horizon is appropriate for sensitivity analysis in upstream projects?

Forecast horizons depend on reservoir life and investment horizon; many upstream models provide multi‑year projections. The Desyton model allows users to select forecasted years up to 20 years, with output reports and charts updating dynamically based on the selected period.

What features should I prioritize when choosing an off‑the‑shelf upstream petroleum model?

Prioritize dynamic sensitivity controls, separate oil and gas project worksheets, customizable economic and operating assumptions, abandonment and post‑economic limit testing, reserves (BOE) modeling, and presentation‑ready dashboards. Flevy’s Expert Sensitivity Analysis for Upstream Petroleum Models includes these features across 11 worksheets with dynamic charts.

How customizable are templates for upstream project scenarios?

Quality templates allow adaptation to project‑specific inputs and scenarios. The product overview states the model structure follows oil and gas financial modeling principles and is fully customizable to actual project scenarios, enabling users to modify assumptions, costs and forecasts to match their projects.

If I need to evaluate project outcomes under oil price volatility, what modeling approach should I use?

Use scenario‑based sensitivity analysis that varies price, production and cost assumptions, and observe impacts on cash flow and valuation metrics. The described model supports case scenarios and sensitivity inputs with dynamic summary reports and charts to test price volatility impacts on project economics.

How are reserves converted and analyzed in economic models for decision making?

Reserves modelling links production forecasts to economic outputs, often converting quantities to barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) for combined analysis. The template addresses Oil and Gas reserves modelling with BOE analysis for both assets, feeding revenue, GOCF and valuation worksheets.

Source: Best Practices in Oil & Gas Excel: Expert Sensitivity Analysis for Upstream Petroleum Models Excel (XLSX) Spreadsheet, Desyton Energy Advisors