This PPT slide, part of the 39-slide Creative Thinking in Strategy Development PowerPoint presentation, presents a structured approach to scenario development, focusing on various uncertainties that can impact strategic decision-making. Each axis of uncertainty is categorized into two extreme outcomes: A (Favorable) and B (Unfavorable). This bifurcation allows for a clearer understanding of potential risks and opportunities.
The first section outlines key uncertainties, including US opportunity potential, producing country stability, global economic growth, openness, and environmental factors. Each of these uncertainties is assessed based on its most extreme outcomes. For instance, US opportunity potential is evaluated as either good (over 125% reserves replacement) or limited (under 100% reserves replacement). Similarly, producing country stability is classified as stable or unstable, which directly affects strategic planning.
The second section combines these uncertainties to create distinct scenarios. Four scenarios are outlined: Base Case, Global Instability/Local Protection, Gas Blood Bath, and US Growth. Each scenario reflects different combinations of the potential outcomes across the uncertainties. For example, the Base Case scenario assumes favorable conditions for US opportunity potential and stable producing country stability, while the Gas Blood Bath scenario presents a more challenging outlook.
This framework is essential for organizations looking to navigate uncertainty. It encourages leaders to think critically about how various factors interplay and influence outcomes. By visualizing these scenarios, executives can better prepare for potential challenges and align their strategies accordingly. This slide serves as a valuable tool for fostering strategic discussions and guiding decision-making in uncertain environments.
This slide is part of the Creative Thinking in Strategy Development PowerPoint presentation.
This presentation is created by former McKinsey, BCG, Deloitte, EY, and Capgemini consultants. It teaches a practical consulting framework actively used by tier-1 consulting firms.
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