Developing a 2x2 Matrix for Key Uncertainties PPT

Phase 4 focuses on developing a 2x2 matrix that centers on the 2 most significant independent uncertainties impacting a given scenario. The process begins with the premise that by identifying extreme outcomes, one can better understand the relationship between various uncertainties. This approach assumes that the reality will likely fall somewhere between these extremes.

The guidelines emphasize that the purpose of defining scenarios is not to predict the most probable outcome, but to explore the correlations between uncertainties. This exploration helps illuminate potential risks associated with various paths forward. If there are 4 critical uncertainties, the document suggests that additional matrices can be created. However, it stresses that the priority should be on narrowing down to the 2 most impactful drivers.

The guidance indicates that prioritization is crucial. It is important to distill the uncertainties to a point where only the top 2 can be selected for analysis. This focused approach allows for a clearer understanding of how these uncertainties interact and the implications for strategic decision-making.

Overall, this phase is about simplifying complexity to enhance clarity in strategic planning. By concentrating on the most relevant uncertainties, organizations can better prepare for varying future scenarios. This method not only aids in risk assessment, but also supports informed decision-making in uncertain environments.

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