{"id":12397,"date":"2023-01-07T11:03:17","date_gmt":"2023-01-07T16:03:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/?p=12397"},"modified":"2023-01-07T11:03:17","modified_gmt":"2023-01-07T16:03:17","slug":"forecasting-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/forecasting-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12402\" src=\"http:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/DALL\u00b7E-2023-01-06-12.56.45-4K-stock-photo-of-a-business-person-holding-a-chart-that-makes-no-sense.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"993\" srcset=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/DALL\u00b7E-2023-01-06-12.56.45-4K-stock-photo-of-a-business-person-holding-a-chart-that-makes-no-sense.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/DALL\u00b7E-2023-01-06-12.56.45-4K-stock-photo-of-a-business-person-holding-a-chart-that-makes-no-sense-300x291.jpg 300w, https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/DALL\u00b7E-2023-01-06-12.56.45-4K-stock-photo-of-a-business-person-holding-a-chart-that-makes-no-sense-768x745.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The impact of unforeseen crises\u2014such as economic depressions, natural disasters, and black swan events (i.e. the recent COVID-19 pandemic\u2014is immense.\u00a0 Crises can paralyze organizations and economies alike. \u00a0These times are certainly anything but business as usual for almost all organizations.\u00a0 There are safety concerns everywhere.\u00a0 People have restricted movement, business activities slow down, and cash flow squeezes.<\/p>\n<p>During these uncertain times, customers\u2019 requirements shift dramatically and this demands different ways of working from the organizations. For instance:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Key priority areas become cost containment and getting systems and tools ready to manage scores of employees commencing work remotely because of movement control during pandemics and the like.<\/li>\n<li>Financial Forecasting, predicting scenarios, drawing conclusions, and reporting becomes difficult, volatile, and unpredictable.<\/li>\n<li>Many organizations have to shift their entire <a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/browse\/flevypro\/business-model-innovation-bmi-business-model-journey-6129\">Business Models<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Cost cutting measures become a norm.<\/li>\n<li>There are massive layoffs and even closure of businesses.<\/li>\n<li>Some have to offer online product ordering and fulfillment services.<\/li>\n<li>Others need to work on delivering superior <a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/business-toolkit\/customer-experience\">virtual Customer Experiences<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Online collaboration tools, such as Teams, Zoom, Google Meet, or Microsoft Office 365 become the new norm in such uncertain circumstances.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Most organizations tend to get cash strapped during such uncertain times while many need to resort to drastic Cost Cutting measures.\u00a0 Such circumstances warrant the following elements from the businesses to come out of the crisis stronger than before:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Coherent <a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/browse\/flevypro\/scenario-planning-primer-3784\">Planning through Scenario Analysis<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Forecasting of cash flows.<\/li>\n<li>Developing a holistic long-term view of the business.<\/li>\n<li>Making lucid investments.<\/li>\n<li>Building unique capabilities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Financial Planners typically prepare financial forecasts based on historical trends, past performance, and market trends.\u00a0 During uncertain times, management should focus on <a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/browse\/flevypro\/integrated-cost-management-4172\">Cost Management<\/a> and employing effective Forecasting methods.<\/p>\n<p>A robust Forecasting approach that is able to manage stakeholders\u2019 expectations necessitates 3 key steps:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Select a flexible forecasting tool suite with the right level of scope and detail.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Share, corroborate, and evaluate your assumptions. <\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Outline the impact of decisions <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12398\" src=\"http:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Forecasting-Uncertainty.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1335\" height=\"752\" srcset=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Forecasting-Uncertainty.png 1335w, https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Forecasting-Uncertainty-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Forecasting-Uncertainty-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Forecasting-Uncertainty-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1335px) 100vw, 1335px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The approach has 3 corresponding questions for each step:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Does our forecasting tool suite answer the questions being asked?<\/li>\n<li>Do our base case assumptions reflect new realities and possibilities?<\/li>\n<li>What happens if we pull the levers we have at our disposal?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Let\u2019s dive deeper into the details of the first 2 steps of this Forecasting approach.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Step 1. Select a flexible forecasting tool suite with the right level of scope and detail.<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The initial step of the approach entails using a flexible forecasting tool to create estimates by taking into account both positive (upside) and disadvantaged (downside) scenarios.\u00a0 The forecasting suite should be able to provide functionalities for:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Estimating the impact of fixed and variable costs and any imminent sales and operational planning issues arising out of the uncertain situation.<\/li>\n<li>Visualizing scenarios around budgets required, e.g., discretionary, mandatory, and contracted expenditures.<\/li>\n<li>Telling a coherent story at the required frequency\u2014e.g., forecasting weekly or monthly cash scenarios.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>Step 2. Share, corroborate, and evaluate your assumptions.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The next step necessitates putting together compelling assumptions.\u00a0 Planners need to develop, communicate, and test dynamic and up-to-the-minute forecast assumptions and drivers.\u00a0 They should:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Learn from the impact of crisis on comparable businesses around the world and the actions they take to cope with it.<\/li>\n<li>Reconcile the base case assumptions with up-to-date financial statements, allocations, and expenditure reports.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Interested in learning more about the steps of the approach to Financial Forecasting?\u00a0 You\u00a0can download\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/browse\/flevypro\/5-stages-of-management-evolution-6689\">an editable PowerPoint presentation on\u00a0Forecasting Uncertainty here\u00a0<\/a>on the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/browse\">Flevy documents marketplace<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Do You Find Value in This Framework?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>You can download in-depth presentations on this and hundreds of similar business frameworks from the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/pro\/library\">FlevyPro Library<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/pro\">FlevyPro<\/a>\u00a0is trusted and utilized by 1000s of management consultants and corporate executives.<\/p>\n<p>For even more best practices available on Flevy, have a look at our top 100 lists:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/top-100\/strategy\">Top 100 in Strategy &amp; Transformation<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/top-100\/organization\">Top 100 in Organization &amp; Change<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/top-100\/consulting\">Top 100 Consulting Frameworks<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/top-100\/digital\">Top 100 in Digital Transformation<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/top-100\/opex\">Top 100 in Operational Excellence<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The impact of unforeseen crises\u2014such as economic depressions, natural disasters, and black swan events (i.e. the recent COVID-19 pandemic\u2014is immense.\u00a0 Crises can paralyze organizations and economies alike. \u00a0These times are certainly anything but business as usual for almost all organizations.\u00a0 There are safety concerns everywhere.\u00a0 People have restricted movement, business activities slow down, and cash&hellip;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/forecasting-uncertainty\/\" rel=\"bookmark\"><span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Forecasting Uncertainty<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":12402,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[83,408],"tags":[4,1985,15,3081,3083,1136,3082,2902,1490,3022,60,2223],"class_list":["post-12397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-corporate-finance","category-management-leadership","tag-business-model","tag-cash-flow","tag-cost-management","tag-crisis","tag-customer-experiences","tag-decision-making","tag-financial-planning","tag-forecasting","tag-investments","tag-scenario-analysis","tag-scenario-planning","tag-uncertainty"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/110"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12397"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12397\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12405,"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12397\/revisions\/12405"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12402"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/flevy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}